luckadjusted

2023 season · final

Miami Dolphins, 2023: game by game

The Dolphins went 11–6 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 12.3 wins. Luck cost them 1.3: the 8th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–3.

Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.4.

Every game

How often the Dolphins win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Chargers W 36–34 58% +42
Week 2 @ Patriots W 24–17 88% +12
Week 3 vs Broncos W 70–20 98% +2
Week 4 @ Bills L 20–48 2% −2
Week 5 vs Giants W 31–16 100% 0
Week 6 vs Panthers W 42–21 97% +3
Week 7 @ Eagles L 17–31 52% −52
Week 8 vs Patriots W 31–17 96% +4
Week 9 @ Chiefs L 14–21 32% −32
Week 11 vs Raiders W 20–13 89% +11
Week 12 @ Jets W 34–13 100% 0
Week 13 @ Commanders W 45–15 96% +4
Week 14 vs Titans L 27–28 95% −95
Week 15 vs Jets W 30–0 100% 0
Week 16 vs Cowboys W 22–20 70% +30
Week 17 @ Ravens L 19–56 8% −8
Week 18 vs Bills L 14–21 48% −48
Wild Card @ Chiefs L 7–26 38% −38

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Dolphins’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Fumble bounces+17.3+1.02
3rd & 4th downs+8.4+0.50
Kicks+5.5+0.32
Rest+1.4+0.08
Drops−5.9−0.35
Judgment calls−16.5−0.97
Injuries−16.7−0.98