2023 season · final
Miami Dolphins, 2023: game by game
The Dolphins went 11–6 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 12.2 wins. Luck cost them 1.2: the 7th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–3.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.2.
Every game
How often the Dolphins win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Chargers | W 36–34 | 44% | +56 |
| Week 2 | @ Patriots | W 24–17 | 88% | +12 |
| Week 3 | vs Broncos | W 70–20 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 4 | @ Bills | L 20–48 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 5 | vs Giants | W 31–16 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 6 | vs Panthers | W 42–21 | 95% | +5 |
| Week 7 | @ Eagles | L 17–31 | 53% | −53 |
| Week 8 | vs Patriots | W 31–17 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 9 | vs Chiefs | L 14–21 | 30% | −30 |
| Week 11 | vs Raiders | W 20–13 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 12 | @ Jets | W 34–13 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 13 | @ Commanders | W 45–15 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 14 | vs Titans | L 27–28 | 96% | −96 |
| Week 15 | vs Jets | W 30–0 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 16 | vs Cowboys | W 22–20 | 74% | +26 |
| Week 17 | @ Ravens | L 19–56 | 4% | −4 |
| Week 18 | vs Bills | L 14–21 | 48% | −48 |
| Wild Card | @ Chiefs | L 7–26 | 23% | −23 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Dolphins’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Fumble bounces | +0.69 | +22.7 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.23 | +8.0 |
| Drops | +0.16 | −3.9 |
| Judgment calls | −0.07 | −8.3 |
| Kicks | −0.18 | +4.9 |
| Injuries | −0.35 | −12.6 |