luckadjusted

Week 12 2023 · November 24, 2023

Dolphins at Jets, Week 12 2023: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Jets 34–13, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Dolphins win 10 of 10. The Jets had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 3.1 points to the Jets.

Before kickoff the Dolphins were 76% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:02 left): Return touchdown by the Dolphins, worth 28 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

Miami Dolphins 34
New York Jets 13

November 24, 2023 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Dolphins −9.5

Luck index 0 Dolphins about even · 0 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 10, Jets win 0.

  1. 1 MIA 44 NYJ 6
  2. 2 MIA 40 NYJ 7
  3. 3 MIA 31 NYJ 3
  4. 4 MIA 40 NYJ 14
  5. 5 MIA 30 NYJ 7
  6. 6 MIA 31 NYJ 10
  7. 7 MIA 31 NYJ 13
  8. 8 MIA 22 NYJ 8
  9. 9 MIA 16 NYJ 6
  10. 10 MIA 14 NYJ 9

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 100% of them, Jets 0%. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 21.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+92.7%
Dolphins by 9–166.1%
Dolphins by 1–80.9%
Level after regulation0.1%
Jets by 1–80.1%
Jets by 9–160.0%
Jets by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Dolphins by 21. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Dolphins by 17.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 38 yds made · 88% expected
  • J. Sanders, 54 yds made · 59% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:52 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +15% MIA MIA: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 6:37 The Dolphins were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +11% NYJ MIA: Field goal
3 Q2 12:55 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +5% MIA MIA: Touchdown
4 Q2 7:41 The Jets got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% NYJ NYJ: Punt
5 Q2 6:57 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +6% MIA NYJ: Punt
6 Q2 1:05 The Dolphins threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the JetsSpecial teams +25% NYJ MIA: Turnover
7 Q2 0:09 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expectedThe Dolphins threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +14% NYJ MIA: Opp touchdown
8 Q2 0:02 The Jets threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the DolphinsSpecial teams +28% MIA NYJ: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Mekhi Becton (NYJ T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Allen Lazard (NYJ WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Connor McGovern (NYJ C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Alijah Vera-Tucker (NYJ G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Eli Apple (MIA CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Robert Hunt (MIA G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Isaiah Wynn (MIA G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Robert Jones (MIA G), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 100% · Jets 0%

Final margin
Dolphins by 21
Luck in points
3.3 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 17.7
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 100% · Jets 0% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2023 games · Dolphins · Jets

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