luckadjusted

Week 12 2023 · November 26, 2023

Saints at Falcons, Week 12 2023: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Saints 24–15 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Saints had the bounces: drops alone were worth 2.4 points to the Saints.

Before kickoff the Saints were 56% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 1:59 left): Return touchdown by the Falcons, worth 71 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final

New Orleans Saints 15
Atlanta Falcons 24

November 26, 2023 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Saints −2

Luck index +20 Falcons about even · −20 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 2, Falcons win 8.

  1. 1 NO 27 ATL 14
  2. 2 NO 20 ATL 17
  3. 3 NO 28 ATL 30
  4. 4 NO 27 ATL 30
  5. 5 NO 16 ATL 23
  6. 6 NO 17 ATL 27
  7. 7 NO 17 ATL 30
  8. 8 NO 10 ATL 26
  9. 9 NO 7 ATL 27
  10. 10 NO 16 ATL 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 20% of them, Falcons 80%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 9.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+1.9%
Saints by 9–165.4%
Saints by 1–811.6%
Level after regulation2.8%
Falcons by 1–826.7%
Falcons by 9–1621.7%
Falcons by 17+30.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Falcons by 9. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Falcons by 7.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Grupe, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • B. Grupe, 52 yds made · 70% expected
  • B. Grupe, 41 yds made · 87% expected
  • B. Grupe, 45 yds made · 81% expected
  • B. Grupe, 39 yds made · 90% expected
  • Y. Koo, 39 yds made · 92% expected
  • B. Grupe, 54 yds missed · 67% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

As low as 35% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:09 The Falcons were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +11% NO ATL: Opp touchdown
2 Q1 4:20 Offensive Holding on the Saints (Foster Moreau), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 13 flags in 3330 snaps before, position avg 1 per 286 +8% ATL ATL: Opp touchdown
3 Q1 1:59 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expectedThe Saints threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the FalconsSpecial teams +71% ATL NO: Field goal
4 Q3 10:35 The Saints converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expectedThe Saints fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% NO NO: Field goal
5 Q3 5:26 Offensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Juwan Johnson), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 6 flags in 1731 snaps before, position avg 1 per 286 +8% ATL ATL: Turnover
6 Q3 1:27 The Falcons threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +7% NO ATL: Touchdown
7 Q3 0:02 The Saints fumbled and the Falcons recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +13% ATL NO: Field goal
8 Q4 10:46 The Falcons converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +8% ATL ATL: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Taylor Heinicke (ATL QB), out, replaced by d.ridder · 1.3 pts
  • Grady Jarrett (ATL DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Michael Thomas (NO WR), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Marshon Lattimore (NO CB), out (IR) · 1.0 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 13% · Falcons 87%

Final margin
Falcons by 9
Luck in points
1.8 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 7.2
Replay with same day's form
Saints 20% · Falcons 80% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2023 games · Saints · Falcons

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