luckadjusted

Week 12 2023 · November 26, 2023

Bills at Eagles, Week 12 2023: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Bills 37–34, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Eagles win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 7.4 points to the Eagles.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (QOT, 5:56 left): T. Bass made 40-yard field goal, worth 29 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final (OT)

Buffalo Bills 34
Philadelphia Eagles 37

November 26, 2023 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −2.5

Luck index +59 Eagles lucky · −59 Bills

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 6, Eagles win 4.

  1. 1 BUF 41 PHI 18
  2. 2 BUF 37 PHI 20
  3. 3 BUF 39 PHI 26
  4. 4 BUF 39 PHI 30
  5. 5 BUF 32 PHI 26
  6. 6 BUF 53 PHI 51
  7. 7 BUF 28 PHI 30
  8. 8 BUF 31 PHI 38
  9. 9 BUF 17 PHI 29
  10. 10 BUF 16 PHI 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 59% of them, Eagles 41%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+17.0%
Bills by 9–1615.6%
Bills by 1–824.7%
Level after regulation2.9%
Eagles by 1–818.5%
Eagles by 9–1612.3%
Eagles by 17+8.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Eagles by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bills by 3.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Bass, 48 yds made · 77% expected
  • T. Bass, 34 yds blocked · 94% expected
  • T. Bass, 48 yds missed · 77% expected
  • J. Elliott, 59 yds made · 58% expected
  • T. Bass, 40 yds made · 87% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 12% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q4 11:18 The Eagles converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +23% PHI PHI: Touchdown
2 Q4 0:30 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedFalse Start on the Eagles, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +19% BUF PHI: Field goal
3 Q4 0:25 J. Elliott made 59-yard field goalKicks · 58% expected for him, 25 of 36 from 45+ before +23% PHI PHI: Touchdown
4 QOT 9:21 The Bills converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +18% BUF BUF: Field goal
5 QOT 8:06 The Bills converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +21% BUF BUF: Field goal
6 QOT 5:56 T. Bass made 40-yard field goalKicks · 87% expected for him +29% PHI –
7 QOT 3:33 A. Brown dropped a catchable passDrops · 8 drops on 200 catchable balls before this +18% BUF PHI: Touchdown
8 QOT 3:29 The Eagles converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +16% PHI PHI: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Lane Johnson (PHI T), out · 1.2 pts
  • Dallas Goedert (PHI TE), out · 1.1 pts
  • Justin Evans (PHI FS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Nakobe Dean (PHI LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Dawson Knox (BUF TE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Kaiir Elam (BUF CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Dane Jackson (BUF CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Matt Milano (BUF LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 74% · Eagles 26%

Final margin
Eagles by 3
Luck in points
6.7 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 3.7
Replay with same day's form
Bills 59% · Eagles 41% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2023 games · Bills · Eagles

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