luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 12 2023 · November 26, 2023

Bills at Eagles, Week 12 2023: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Bills 37–34, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Eagles win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 44 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:25 left): J. Elliott made a 59-yard field goal, worth 21 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final (OT)

Buffalo Bills 34
Philadelphia Eagles 37

November 26, 2023 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −2.5

Luck index +59 Eagles lucky · −59 Bills

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 6, Eagles win 4.

  1. 1 BUF 41 PHI 13
  2. 2 BUF 62 PHI 43
  3. 3 BUF 37 PHI 23
  4. 4 BUF 46 PHI 37
  5. 5 BUF 42 PHI 37
  6. 6 BUF 28 PHI 26
  7. 7 BUF 30 PHI 33
  8. 8 BUF 25 PHI 31
  9. 9 BUF 20 PHI 33
  10. 10 BUF 22 PHI 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 59% of them, Eagles 41%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+17.4%
Bills by 9–1616.2%
Bills by 1–823.5%
Level after regulation2.6%
Eagles by 1–818.4%
Eagles by 9–1612.2%
Eagles by 17+9.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.6 points to the Eagles: the final margin was Eagles by 3, without the luck Eagles by 0.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Bass, 48 yds made · 76% expected
  • T. Bass, 34 yds blocked · 94% expected
  • T. Bass, 48 yds missed · 76% expected
  • J. Elliott, 59 yds made · 61% expected
  • T. Bass, 40 yds made · 88% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bills 11 for 80 yards, Eagles 4 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 6:50 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PHI +0.9 pts
Q1 6:50 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PHI +0.6 pts
Q1 6:45 Face Mask on the Bills (Siran Neal), 15 yards +3% PHI +1.1 pts
Q1 6:37 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BUF +0.9 pts
Q1 4:28 Defensive Holding on the Bills (Rasul Douglas), 5 yards +5% PHI +1.3 pts
Q1 2:08 Encroachment on the Bills (Jordan Phillips), 5 yards · pre-snap +7% PHI +1.2 pts
Q1 1:26 Illegal Use of Hands on the Bills (Ed Oliver), 2 yards +1% PHI +0.4 pts
Q2 11:10 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the play +11% PHI +2.2 pts
Q2 6:57 Offensive Holding on the Bills (Baylon Spector), 5 yards +1% PHI +0.5 pts
Q2 1:34 Intentional Grounding on the Bills (Josh Allen), 13 yards +4% PHI +1.0 pts
Q2 0:49 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards +6% PHI +1.6 pts
Q4 11:07 Defensive Offside on the Bills (Jordan Poyer), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% PHI +0.5 pts
Q4 0:38 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% BUF +0.5 pts
Q4 0:30 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% BUF +0.4 pts
OT 7:24 Roughing the Passer on the Eagles (Nicholas Morrow), 15 yards +14% BUF +1.8 pts

Bills penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 12% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q4 11:18 The Eagles converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +14% PHI PHI: Touchdown
2 Q4 0:30 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedFalse Start on the Eagles, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +19% BUF PHI: Field goal
3 Q4 0:25 J. Elliott made a 59-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 25 of 36 from 45+ before +21% PHI PHI: Touchdown
4 OT 9:21 The Bills converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +18% BUF BUF: Field goal
5 OT 8:06 The Bills converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +21% BUF BUF: Field goal
6 OT 7:24 Roughing the Passer on the Eagles (Nicholas Morrow), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 3468 snaps before, position avg 1 per 444 +14% BUF BUF: Field goal
7 OT 3:33 A. Brown dropped a catchable passDrops · 8 drops on 200 catchable balls before this +16% BUF PHI: Touchdown
8 OT 3:29 The Eagles converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +16% PHI PHI: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Lane Johnson (PHI T), out · 1.2 pts
  • Dallas Goedert (PHI TE), out · 1.1 pts
  • Justin Evans (PHI FS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Nakobe Dean (PHI LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Dawson Knox (BUF TE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Kaiir Elam (BUF CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Dane Jackson (BUF CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Matt Milano (BUF LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 51% · Eagles 49%

Final margin
Eagles by 3
Luck in points
2.6 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 0.4
Replay with same day's form
Bills 59% · Eagles 41% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2023 games · Bills · Eagles

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