luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 12 2023 · November 26, 2023

Buccaneers at Colts, Week 12 2023: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Buccaneers 27–20, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Colts win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Colts were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 14:06 left): the Buccaneers converted 4th & 10, worth 13 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20
Indianapolis Colts 27

November 26, 2023 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Colts −2.5

Luck index +40 Colts lucky · −40 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 4, Colts win 6.

  1. 1 TB 28 IND 10
  2. 2 TB 34 IND 23
  3. 3 TB 24 IND 17
  4. 4 TB 27 IND 24
  5. 5 TB 13 IND 15
  6. 6 TB 27 IND 31
  7. 7 TB 13 IND 21
  8. 8 TB 10 IND 22
  9. 9 TB 10 IND 26
  10. 10 TB 3 IND 26

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 40% of them, Colts 60%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+6.3%
Buccaneers by 9–1612.1%
Buccaneers by 1–821.1%
Level after regulation2.7%
Colts by 1–827.2%
Colts by 9–1616.5%
Colts by 17+14.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.3 points to the Buccaneers: the final margin was Colts by 7, without the luck Colts by 10.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 21 yds made · 98% expected
  • M. Gay, 46 yds made · 83% expected
  • M. Gay, 58 yds missed · 67% expected
  • M. Gay, 36 yds made · 94% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 24 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Buccaneers 4 for 24 yards, Colts 5 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:31 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Colts (Samson Ebukam), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% TB 0.0 pts
Q1 8:39 False Start on the Buccaneers, 4 yards · pre-snap +3% IND +0.8 pts
Q1 6:14 Defensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Carlton Davis), 5 yards 0% IND +0.3 pts
Q1 2:24 Defensive Offside on the Colts (Adetomiwa Adebawore), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TB +0.3 pts
Q2 3:13 Roughing the Passer on the Colts (Kenny Moore), 15 yards +1% TB +1.0 pts
Q2 2:00 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% IND +2.3 pts
Q4 11:32 Offensive Holding on the Colts (Michael Pittman Jr.), 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% TB +0.9 pts
Q4 4:10 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards +2% TB +1.2 pts
Q4 2:02 Illegal Shift on the Buccaneers (Rachaad White), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +7% IND +1.5 pts

Buccaneers penalties, every game · Colts penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:57 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +8% TB TB: Field goal
2 Q2 2:00 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% IND IND: Missed field goal
3 Q2 0:07 The Colts converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +6% IND IND: Missed field goal
4 Q2 0:02 M. Gay missed a 58-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him, 38 of 51 from 45+ before +8% TB IND: Field goal
5 Q3 1:50 J. Downs dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 56 catchable balls before this +8% TB IND: Touchdown
6 Q4 14:06 The Buccaneers converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +13% TB TB: Touchdown
7 Q4 11:32 Offensive Holding on the Colts (Michael Pittman Jr.), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 19 flags in 3508 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +7% TB TB: Field goal
8 Q4 2:02 Illegal Shift on the Buccaneers (Rachaad White), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 0 flags in 1145 snaps before, position avg 1 per 870 +7% IND IND: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ryan Kelly (IND C), out · 0.6 pts
  • Dallis Flowers (IND CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Julius Brents (IND CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Grover Stewart (IND DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jamel Dean (TB CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Lavonte David (TB LB), out · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 5% · Colts 95%

Final margin
Colts by 7
Luck in points
3.3 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 10.3
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 40% · Colts 60% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2023 games · Buccaneers · Colts

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