luckadjusted

Week 12 2023 · November 26, 2023

Buccaneers at Colts, Week 12 2023: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Buccaneers 27–20 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Buccaneers had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 2.0 points to the Buccaneers.

Before kickoff the Colts were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:36 left): the Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 4, worth 15 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20
Indianapolis Colts 27

November 26, 2023 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Colts −2.5

Luck index +36 Colts lucky · −36 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 4, Colts win 6.

  1. 1 TB 33 IND 13
  2. 2 TB 25 IND 14
  3. 3 TB 25 IND 19
  4. 4 TB 16 IND 14
  5. 5 TB 10 IND 13
  6. 6 TB 13 IND 17
  7. 7 TB 16 IND 24
  8. 8 TB 17 IND 29
  9. 9 TB 7 IND 23
  10. 10 TB 20 IND 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 36% of them, Colts 64%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+6.1%
Buccaneers by 9–1611.0%
Buccaneers by 1–819.1%
Level after regulation3.4%
Colts by 1–828.8%
Colts by 9–1616.9%
Colts by 17+14.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Colts by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Colts by 9.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 21 yds made · 99% expected
  • M. Gay, 46 yds made · 83% expected
  • M. Gay, 58 yds missed · 65% expected
  • M. Gay, 36 yds made · 94% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 24 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:57 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +9% TB TB: Field goal
2 Q2 6:38 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expectedThe Colts threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +10% TB IND: Punt
3 Q2 2:00 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% IND IND: Missed field goal
4 Q2 0:02 M. Gay missed 58-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 38 of 51 from 45+ before +7% TB IND: Field goal
5 Q4 14:06 The Buccaneers converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +15% TB TB: Touchdown
6 Q4 9:11 The Colts converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +12% IND IND: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:02 Illegal Shift on the Buccaneers (Rachaad White), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 0 flags in 1145 snaps before, position avg 1 per 870 +7% IND IND: End of game
8 Q4 1:36 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expectedThe Buccaneers fumbled and the Colts recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +15% IND –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ryan Kelly (IND C), out · 0.6 pts
  • Dallis Flowers (IND CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Julius Brents (IND CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Grover Stewart (IND DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jamel Dean (TB CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Lavonte David (TB LB), out · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 6% · Colts 94%

Final margin
Colts by 7
Luck in points
2.1 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 9.1
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 36% · Colts 64% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2023 games · Buccaneers · Colts

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