luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2023 NFL season · November 23, 2023–November 27

Week 12 2023: who deserved to win

No winner of Week 12 was behind in the replays. The closest call: the Eagles won 37–34 and take 41% of replays.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 12 2023 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 4 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Packers 29–22 @ Lions 26% 73% Deserved
Giants 10–7 vs Patriots 37% 55% Coin flip
Bears 12–10 @ Vikings 41% 43% Coin flip
Falcons 24–15 vs Saints 44% 80% Deserved

Week 12 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Eagles W 37–34 vs Bills 41% +59
2 Jaguars W 24–21 @ Texans 43% +57
3 Bears W 12–10 @ Vikings 43% +57
4 Giants W 10–7 vs Patriots 55% +45
5 Colts W 27–20 vs Buccaneers 60% +40
6 Packers W 29–22 @ Lions 73% +27
7 Broncos W 29–12 vs Browns 77% +23
8 Falcons W 24–15 vs Saints 80% +20
9 Chiefs W 31–17 @ Raiders 86% +14
10 Titans W 17–10 vs Panthers 87% +13
11 Ravens W 20–10 @ Chargers 89% +11
12 Cowboys W 45–10 vs Commanders 89% +11
13 Steelers W 16–10 @ Bengals 93% +7
14 Rams W 37–14 @ Cardinals 98% +2
15 49ers W 31–13 @ Seahawks 98% +2
16 Dolphins W 34–13 @ Jets 100% 0
17 Jets L 13–34 vs Dolphins 0% 0
18 Seahawks L 13–31 vs 49ers 2% −2
19 Cardinals L 14–37 vs Rams 2% −2
20 Bengals L 10–16 vs Steelers 7% −7
21 Commanders L 10–45 @ Cowboys 11% −11
22 Chargers L 10–20 vs Ravens 11% −11
23 Panthers L 10–17 @ Titans 13% −13
24 Raiders L 17–31 vs Chiefs 14% −14
25 Saints L 15–24 @ Falcons 20% −20
26 Browns L 12–29 @ Broncos 23% −23
27 Lions L 22–29 vs Packers 27% −27
28 Buccaneers L 20–27 @ Colts 40% −40
29 Patriots L 7–10 @ Giants 45% −45
30 Vikings L 10–12 vs Bears 57% −57
31 Texans L 21–24 vs Jaguars 57% −57
32 Bills L 34–37 @ Eagles 59% −59