luckadjusted

Week 12 2023 · November 23, 2023

Packers at Lions, Week 12 2023: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Lions 29–22, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Packers win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 4.7 points to the Packers.

Before kickoff the Lions were 74% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 2:23 left): Return touchdown by the Packers, worth 18 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Green Bay Packers 29
Detroit Lions 22

November 23, 2023 · Ford Field · Closing line: Lions −8.5

Luck index +43 Packers lucky · −43 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 6, Lions win 4.

  1. 1 GB 38 DET 14
  2. 2 GB 24 DET 7
  3. 3 GB 30 DET 19
  4. 4 GB 24 DET 16
  5. 5 GB 34 DET 29
  6. 6 GB 16 DET 13
  7. 7 GB 27 DET 29
  8. 8 GB 23 DET 29
  9. 9 GB 28 DET 39
  10. 10 GB 13 DET 32

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 57% of them, Lions 43%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+13.2%
Packers by 9–1616.5%
Packers by 1–827.2%
Level after regulation2.8%
Lions by 1–820.3%
Lions by 9–1612.7%
Lions by 17+7.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Packers by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Packers by 4.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Carlson, 43 yds made · 85% expected
  • A. Carlson, 63 yds missed · 55% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:03 The Lions converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +6% DET DET: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:30 The Lions missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 94% of the time +6% GB DET: Opp touchdown
3 Q1 6:33 The Packers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +8% GB GB: Touchdown
4 Q1 2:23 The Lions fumbled and the Packers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the PackersSpecial teams +18% GB DET: Turnover
5 Q1 1:30 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedThe Lions fumbled and the Packers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% GB DET: Punt
6 Q2 0:01 A. Carlson missed 63-yard field goalKicks · 55% expected for him, 2 of 4 from 45+ before +6% DET GB: Punt
7 Q3 7:52 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expectedR. Doubs dropped a catchable passDrops · 7 drops on 102 catchable balls before this +6% DET GB: Punt
8 Q3 5:32 The Lions were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +6% GB DET: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jonah Jackson (DET G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Scott Daly (DET LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Jaire Alexander (GB CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • De'Vondre Campbell (GB LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Luke Musgrave (GB TE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Rudy Ford (GB FS), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 68% · Lions 32%

Final margin
Packers by 7
Luck in points
2.4 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 4.6
Replay with same day's form
Packers 57% · Lions 43% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2023 games · Packers · Lions

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