Week 12 2023 · November 23, 2023
Packers at Lions, Week 12 2023: who deserved to win?
The Packers beat the Lions 29–22, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.
An off day for the Lions: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Packers they would win 64% of the time; with this day’s form, 27%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Lions were 74% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 2:23 left): Return touchdown by the Packers, worth 18 points of win probability to the Packers.
Final
 Green Bay Packers | 29 |
|---|---|
 Detroit Lions | 22 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +27 Packers lucky · −27 Lions
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Packers win 7, Lions win 3.
- 1 GB 47 DET 19
- 2 GB 20 DET 0
- 3 GB 29 DET 14
- 4 GB 27 DET 16
- 5 GB 31 DET 23
- 6 GB 27 DET 23
- 7 GB 30 DET 28
- 8 GB 13 DET 16
- 9 GB 16 DET 24
- 10 GB 7 DET 24
Your call
Did the Packers earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Lions
Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Packers they would win 64% of the time; with this day’s form, 27%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
37 points apart for the Lions: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Packers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.23 | +0.08 | better by 0.15 |
| Packers defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.09 | +0.11 | better by 0.20 |
| Lions offenseEPA per play gained | −0.09 | +0.16 | worse by 0.25 |
| Lions defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.23 | +0.11 | worse by 0.12 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Packers win 73% of them, Lions 27%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Packers by 17+ | 23.0% |
| Packers by 9–16 | 22.2% |
| Packers by 1–8 | 25.3% |
| Level after regulation | 3.5% |
| Lions by 1–8 | 14.2% |
| Lions by 9–16 | 8.1% |
| Lions by 17+ | 3.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- A. Carlson, 43 yds made · 86% expected
- A. Carlson, 63 yds missed · 43% expected
- Extra point missed · 96% expected
- Extra point missed · 96% expected
Penalties: Packers 7 for 60 yards, Lions 7 for 51 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:57 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Quay Walker), 16 yards | +3% DET +1.2 pts |
| Q1 2:41 | Offensive Offside on the Lions (Donovan Peoples-Jones), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% GB +0.8 pts |
| Q2 9:54 | Encroachment on the Lions (Quinton Bohanna), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% GB +0.4 pts |
| Q2 5:12 | Illegal Contact on the Packers (Isaiah McDuffie), 4 yards | +3% DET +1.5 pts |
| Q2 3:27 | Intentional Grounding on the Lions (Jared Goff), 11 yards | +1% GB +1.0 pts |
| Q2 0:41 | Delay of Game on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DET +0.3 pts |
| Q2 0:27 | Illegal Shift on the Lions, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +2% GB +1.2 pts |
| Q3 12:32 | Offensive Holding on the Lions (Kalif Raymond), 10 yards | +2% GB +0.9 pts |
| Q3 11:46 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Packers (Lukas Van Ness), 15 yards | +2% DET +1.1 pts |
| Q3 9:42 | False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DET +0.7 pts |
| Q3 4:47 | Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards | +3% DET +1.7 pts |
| Q4 11:59 | Delay of Game on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DET +0.5 pts |
| Q4 1:05 | Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards | 0% GB +0.8 pts |
| Q4 0:41 | Illegal Formation on the Lions (Tracy Walker), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% GB +0.4 pts |
Packers penalties, every game · Lions penalties, every game · All teams, 2023
When it happened
Lions’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:03 | The Lions converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +6% DET | DET: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 8:30 | The Lions missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 94% of the time | +6% GB | DET: Opp touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 6:33 | The Packers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +8% GB | GB: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 2:23 | The Lions fumbled and the Packers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the PackersSpecial teams | +18% GB | DET: Turnover |
| 5 | Q2 0:01 | A. Carlson missed a 63-yard field goalKicks · 43% expected for him, 2 of 4 from 45+ before | +4% DET | GB: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 11:46 | The Lions’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedUnnecessary Roughness on the Packers (Lukas Van Ness), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 278 snaps before, position avg 1 per 444 | +4% DET | DET: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q3 7:10 | The Lions got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 49% of interception-worthy throws | +4% DET | DET: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q3 5:32 | The Lions were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +5% GB | DET: Turnover |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Jonah Jackson (DET G), out · 0.4 pts
- Scott Daly (DET LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
- Jaire Alexander (GB CB), out · 0.9 pts
- De'Vondre Campbell (GB LB), out · 0.5 pts
- Luke Musgrave (GB TE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Rudy Ford (GB FS), out · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Packers 63% · Lions 37%
- Final margin
- Packers by 7
- Luck in points
- 3.4 for the Packers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Packers by 3.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Packers 73% · Lions 27% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2023 games · 
Packers · 
Lions
More from Week 12 2023
- Commanders at Cowboys DAL 45–10 · replay 89% for the winner
- 49ers at Seahawks SF 31–13 · replay 98% for the winner
- Dolphins at Jets MIA 34–13 · replay 100% for the winner
- Panthers at Titans TEN 17–10 · replay 87% for the winner
- Jaguars at Texans JAX 24–21 · replay 43% for the winner
- Patriots at Giants NYG 10–7 · replay 55% for the winner
- Saints at Falcons ATL 24–15 · replay 80% for the winner
- Steelers at Bengals PIT 16–10 · replay 93% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Colts IND 27–20 · replay 60% for the winner
- Browns at Broncos DEN 29–12 · replay 77% for the winner
- Rams at Cardinals LA 37–14 · replay 98% for the winner
- Bills at Eagles PHI 37–34 · replay 41% for the winner
- Chiefs at Raiders KC 31–17 · replay 86% for the winner
- Ravens at Chargers BAL 20–10 · replay 89% for the winner
- Bears at Vikings CHI 12–10 · replay 43% for the winner