Week 12 2023 · November 26, 2023
Steelers at Bengals, Week 12 2023: who deserved to win?
The Steelers beat the Bengals 16–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Steelers win 9 of 10. The Bengals had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Bengals.
An off day for the Bengals: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Steelers they would win 39% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Steelers were 56% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 7:08 left): the Steelers converted 3rd & 13, worth 11 points of win probability to the Steelers.
Final
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 16 |
|---|---|
 Cincinnati Bengals | 10 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +7 Steelers about even · −7 Bengals
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Steelers win 9, Bengals win 1.
- 1 PIT 33 CIN 0
- 2 PIT 31 CIN 7
- 3 PIT 41 CIN 21
- 4 PIT 19 CIN 3
- 5 PIT 23 CIN 10
- 6 PIT 16 CIN 5
- 7 PIT 31 CIN 23
- 8 PIT 19 CIN 14
- 9 PIT 19 CIN 17
- 10 PIT 19 CIN 24
Your call
Did the Steelers earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Bengals
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Steelers they would win 39% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
31 points apart for the Bengals: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.18 | +0.03 | better by 0.15 |
| Steelers defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.10 | +0.09 | better by 0.19 |
| Bengals offenseEPA per play gained | −0.10 | +0.12 | worse by 0.22 |
| Bengals defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.18 | +0.10 | worse by 0.08 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Steelers win 93% of them, Bengals 7%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Steelers by 17+ | 54.3% |
| Steelers by 9–16 | 22.3% |
| Steelers by 1–8 | 16.0% |
| Level after regulation | 1.1% |
| Bengals by 1–8 | 4.9% |
| Bengals by 9–16 | 1.3% |
| Bengals by 17+ | 0.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Boswell, 41 yds made · 87% expected
- C. Boswell, 34 yds made · 95% expected
- C. Boswell, 33 yds made · 95% expected
- E. McPherson, 47 yds made · 78% expected
Penalties: Steelers 5 for 55 yards, Bengals 5 for 36 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:42 | Offensive Holding on the Steelers (Mark Robinson), 10 yards | +2% CIN +0.9 pts |
| Q1 5:43 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Logan Wilson), 6 yards | +3% PIT +0.8 pts |
| Q1 2:47 | False Start on the Bengals (Tyler Boyd), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% PIT +0.5 pts |
| Q1 1:42 | Delay of Game on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% PIT +0.6 pts |
| Q2 2:40 | Roughing the Passer on the Steelers (T.J. Watt), 15 yards | +5% CIN +1.0 pts |
| Q2 0:48 | Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards | +5% CIN +1.2 pts |
| Q3 0:08 | Offensive Holding on the Bengals (Irv Smith Jr.), 10 yards | +6% PIT +1.2 pts |
| Q4 14:20 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Bengals, 10 yards | +9% PIT +1.9 pts |
| Q4 13:16 | Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards | +5% CIN +0.9 pts |
| Q4 11:50 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Miles Boykin), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +8% CIN +1.5 pts |
Steelers penalties, every game · Bengals penalties, every game · All teams, 2023
When it happened
Bengals’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 80%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:08 | The Steelers converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +11% PIT | PIT: Turnover |
| 2 | Q1 4:45 | The Steelers fumbled and the Bengals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +10% CIN | PIT: Field goal |
| 3 | Q3 14:11 | The Bengals converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +8% CIN | CIN: Turnover |
| 4 | Q4 15:00 | The Bengals got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 50% of interception-worthy throws | +10% CIN | CIN: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 14:20 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Bengals, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +9% PIT | PIT: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 11:50 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Miles Boykin), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 2199 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 | +8% CIN | CIN: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 10:01 | The Steelers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +8% PIT | PIT: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 6:42 | The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +8% PIT | CIN: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Joe Burrow (CIN QB), out (IR), replaced by j.browning · 7.2 pts
- Tee Higgins (CIN WR), out · 0.8 pts
- Cam Taylor-Britt (CIN CB), out · 0.6 pts
- Minkah Fitzpatrick (PIT FS), out · 0.9 pts
- Keanu Neal (PIT FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Cole Holcomb (PIT LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Kwon Alexander (PIT LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Montravius Adams (PIT NT), out · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Steelers 93% · Bengals 7%
- Final margin
- Steelers by 6
- Luck in points
- 2.4 for the Steelers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Steelers by 3.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Steelers 93% · Bengals 7% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2023 games · 
Steelers · 
Bengals
More from Week 12 2023
- Packers at Lions GB 29–22 · replay 73% for the winner
- Commanders at Cowboys DAL 45–10 · replay 89% for the winner
- 49ers at Seahawks SF 31–13 · replay 98% for the winner
- Dolphins at Jets MIA 34–13 · replay 100% for the winner
- Panthers at Titans TEN 17–10 · replay 87% for the winner
- Jaguars at Texans JAX 24–21 · replay 43% for the winner
- Patriots at Giants NYG 10–7 · replay 55% for the winner
- Saints at Falcons ATL 24–15 · replay 80% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Colts IND 27–20 · replay 60% for the winner
- Browns at Broncos DEN 29–12 · replay 77% for the winner
- Rams at Cardinals LA 37–14 · replay 98% for the winner
- Bills at Eagles PHI 37–34 · replay 41% for the winner
- Chiefs at Raiders KC 31–17 · replay 86% for the winner
- Ravens at Chargers BAL 20–10 · replay 89% for the winner
- Bears at Vikings CHI 12–10 · replay 43% for the winner