luckadjusted

Week 12 2023 · November 26, 2023

Ravens at Chargers, Week 12 2023: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Chargers 20–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 9 of 10. The Chargers had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 3.1 points to the Chargers.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:57 left): the Chargers were stopped on 4th & 6, worth 31 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 20
Los Angeles Chargers 10

November 26, 2023 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −3

Luck index +12 Ravens about even · −12 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 9, Chargers win 1.

  1. 1 BAL 51 LAC 23
  2. 2 BAL 37 LAC 13
  3. 3 BAL 31 LAC 12
  4. 4 BAL 19 LAC 3
  5. 5 BAL 34 LAC 21
  6. 6 BAL 23 LAC 13
  7. 7 BAL 28 LAC 21
  8. 8 BAL 29 LAC 24
  9. 9 BAL 23 LAC 21
  10. 10 BAL 17 LAC 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 88% of them, Chargers 12%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+43.6%
Ravens by 9–1623.3%
Ravens by 1–819.9%
Level after regulation1.3%
Chargers by 1–88.4%
Chargers by 9–162.7%
Chargers by 17+0.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Ravens by 10. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Ravens by 11.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Dicker, 39 yds made · 91% expected
  • J. Tucker, 42 yds made · 88% expected
  • J. Tucker, 48 yds made · 81% expected
  • J. Tucker, 44 yds missed · 85% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 67%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:50 The Chargers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +10% LAC LAC: Field goal
2 Q1 2:02 Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Gus Edwards), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1428 snaps before, position avg 1 per 870 +8% LAC LAC: Punt
3 Q2 4:18 The Ravens were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +10% LAC BAL: Field goal
4 Q4 12:40 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedThe Chargers fumbled and the Ravens recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +21% BAL LAC: Touchdown
5 Q4 3:02 J. Tucker missed 44-yard field goalKicks · 85% expected for him +21% LAC BAL: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:00 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +9% BAL LAC: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 1:57 The Chargers were stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Chargers (Justin Herbert), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 4200 snaps before, position avg 1 per 643 +31% BAL LAC: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 1:44 The Ravens converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +7% BAL BAL: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Joey Bosa (LAC DE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Josh Palmer (LAC WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Marlon Humphrey (BAL CB), out · 1.2 pts
  • Mark Andrews (BAL TE), out (IR) · 0.9 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 96% · Chargers 4%

Final margin
Ravens by 10
Luck in points
1.6 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 11.6
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 88% · Chargers 12% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2023 games · Ravens · Chargers

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