luckadjusted

Week 12 2023 · November 26, 2023

Patriots at Giants, Week 12 2023: who deserved to win?

The Giants beat the Patriots 10–7, but the Patriots played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 4.3 points to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 4:39 left): the Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 4, worth 29 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

New England Patriots 7
New York Giants 10

November 26, 2023 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −4.5

Luck index +62 Giants very lucky · −62 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Patriots win 6, Giants win 4.

  1. 1 NE 29 NYG 7
  2. 2 NE 16 NYG 0
  3. 3 NE 19 NYG 6
  4. 4 NE 12 NYG 3
  5. 5 NE 15 NYG 10
  6. 6 NE 12 NYG 10
  7. 7 NE 6 NYG 8
  8. 8 NE 10 NYG 16
  9. 9 NE 7 NYG 18
  10. 10 NE 6 NYG 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Patriots win 62% of them, Giants 38%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Patriots by 17+13.4%
Patriots by 9–1619.0%
Patriots by 1–827.3%
Level after regulation2.9%
Giants by 1–820.2%
Giants by 9–1613.2%
Giants by 17+4.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Giants by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Giants by 10.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Bullock, 42 yds made · 84% expected
  • C. Ryland, 35 yds missed · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Patriots were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 5:56 The Patriots converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 16% expected +13% NE NE: Turnover
2 Q2 4:39 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedThe Patriots threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +29% NYG NE: Punt
3 Q2 2:00 The Giants converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +9% NYG NYG: Touchdown
4 Q3 6:40 The Giants converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 17% expected +15% NYG NYG: Punt
5 Q4 8:13 R. Bullock made 42-yard field goalKicks · 84% expected for him +9% NYG NYG: Punt
6 Q4 4:04 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +11% NE NYG: Punt
7 Q4 1:58 The Patriots converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +15% NE NE: Missed field goal
8 Q4 0:06 C. Ryland missed 35-yard field goalKicks · 92% expected for himUnsportsmanlike Conduct on the Giants (Xavier McKinney), 12 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 2915 snaps before, position avg 1 per 530 +19% NYG –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Daniel Jones (NYG QB), out (IR), replaced by t.devito · 1.9 pts
  • Evan Neal (NYG T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Dexter Lawrence (NYG NT), out · 0.5 pts
  • Darren Waller (NYG TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Graham Gano (NYG K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Joshua Ezeudu (NYG G), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Christian Gonzalez (NE CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Kendrick Bourne (NE WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Vederian Lowe (NE T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Matt Judon (NE LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Patriots 10% · Giants 90%

Final margin
Giants by 3
Luck in points
7.9 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Giants by 10.9
Replay with same day's form
Patriots 62% · Giants 38% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2023 games · Patriots · Giants

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