luckadjusted

Week 12 2023 · November 26, 2023

Panthers at Titans, Week 12 2023: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Panthers 17–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Titans win 9 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 3.0 points to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Titans were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 6:25 left): the Titans converted 4th & 1, worth 9 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final

Carolina Panthers 10
Tennessee Titans 17

November 26, 2023 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Titans −3.5

Luck index +11 Titans about even · −11 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 1, Titans win 9.

  1. 1 CAR 18 TEN 13
  2. 2 CAR 10 TEN 12
  3. 3 CAR 10 TEN 13
  4. 4 CAR 14 TEN 20
  5. 5 CAR 17 TEN 26
  6. 6 CAR 17 TEN 28
  7. 7 CAR 13 TEN 27
  8. 8 CAR 14 TEN 31
  9. 9 CAR 3 TEN 24
  10. 10 CAR 14 TEN 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 11% of them, Titans 89%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+0.7%
Panthers by 9–162.5%
Panthers by 1–87.8%
Level after regulation1.6%
Titans by 1–820.3%
Titans by 9–1626.6%
Titans by 17+40.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Titans by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Titans by 4.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. Pineiro, 50 yds made · 71% expected
  • N. Folk, 53 yds made · 64% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:25 The Titans converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +9% TEN TEN: Touchdown
2 Q2 10:16 The Panthers converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +9% CAR CAR: Field goal
3 Q2 8:59 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 16% expectedM. Sanders dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 47 catchable balls before this +8% TEN CAR: Field goal
4 Q2 4:23 The Panthers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +7% CAR CAR: Turnover
5 Q3 8:09 The Panthers converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +7% CAR CAR: Touchdown
6 Q4 12:23 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% TEN TEN: Punt
7 Q4 11:45 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 17% expectedA. Thielen dropped a catchable passDrops · 5 drops on 168 catchable balls before this +9% TEN CAR: Punt
8 Q4 8:21 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% TEN TEN: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Nicholas Petit-Frere (TEN T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Treylon Burks (TEN WR), out · 0.2 pts
  • Hayden Hurst (CAR TE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jeremy Chinn (CAR FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • C.J. Henderson (CAR CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Austin Corbett (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Yetur Gross-Matos (CAR LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 18% · Titans 82%

Final margin
Titans by 7
Luck in points
2.3 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 4.7
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 11% · Titans 89% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2023 games · Panthers · Titans

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