luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 12 2023 · November 26, 2023

Panthers at Titans, Week 12 2023: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Panthers 17–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Titans win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Titans were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 11:45 left): A. Thielen dropped a catchable pass, worth 8 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final

Carolina Panthers 10
Tennessee Titans 17

November 26, 2023 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Titans −3.5

Luck index +13 Titans about even · −13 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 1, Titans win 9.

  1. 1 CAR 13 TEN 5
  2. 2 CAR 13 TEN 15
  3. 3 CAR 9 TEN 13
  4. 4 CAR 0 TEN 7
  5. 5 CAR 10 TEN 20
  6. 6 CAR 0 TEN 13
  7. 7 CAR 7 TEN 22
  8. 8 CAR 10 TEN 29
  9. 9 CAR 3 TEN 24
  10. 10 CAR 10 TEN 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 13% of them, Titans 87%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+0.8%
Panthers by 9–163.3%
Panthers by 1–89.2%
Level after regulation1.7%
Titans by 1–819.8%
Titans by 9–1624.9%
Titans by 17+40.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.7 points to the Titans: the final margin was Titans by 7, without the luck Titans by 2.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. Pineiro, 50 yds made · 69% expected
  • N. Folk, 53 yds made · 65% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Panthers 4 for 35 yards, Titans 8 for 53 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:21 Offensive Holding on the Titans (Anthony Kendall), 9 yards +2% CAR +0.8 pts
Q1 7:25 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CAR +0.7 pts
Q2 13:41 Defensive Holding on the Titans (Kristian Fulton), 5 yards +3% CAR +1.4 pts
Q2 9:55 Offensive Holding on the Panthers (Ian Thomas), 10 yards +5% TEN +1.4 pts
Q2 3:36 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TEN +0.5 pts
Q3 13:31 Defensive Holding on the Titans (Sean Murphy-Bunting), 5 yards +2% CAR +1.8 pts
Q3 10:56 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Sean Murphy-Bunting), 14 yards +2% CAR +1.8 pts
Q3 5:50 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CAR +0.8 pts
Q4 13:08 Illegal Contact on the Titans (Kristian Fulton), 5 yards +2% CAR +0.4 pts
Q4 12:23 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% TEN +2.1 pts
Q4 8:21 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% TEN +1.6 pts
Q4 3:11 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CAR +0.5 pts

Panthers penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 10:16 The Panthers converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +8% CAR CAR: Field goal
2 Q2 8:59 M. Sanders dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 47 catchable balls before this +8% TEN CAR: Field goal
3 Q2 8:56 E. Pineiro made a 50-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him, 21 of 25 from 45+ before +7% CAR CAR: Turnover
4 Q2 4:23 The Panthers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +7% CAR CAR: Turnover
5 Q2 3:12 The Panthers fumbled and the Titans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% TEN CAR: Punt
6 Q4 12:23 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% TEN TEN: Punt
7 Q4 11:45 A. Thielen dropped a catchable passDrops · 5 drops on 168 catchable balls before this +8% TEN CAR: Punt
8 Q4 8:21 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% TEN TEN: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Nicholas Petit-Frere (TEN T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Treylon Burks (TEN WR), out · 0.2 pts
  • Hayden Hurst (CAR TE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jeremy Chinn (CAR FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • C.J. Henderson (CAR CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Austin Corbett (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Yetur Gross-Matos (CAR LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 29% · Titans 71%

Final margin
Titans by 7
Luck in points
4.7 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 2.3
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 13% · Titans 87% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2023 games · Panthers · Titans

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