2023 season · final

Carolina Panthers, 2023: game by game

The Panthers went 2–15 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 3.1 wins. Luck cost them 1.1: the 8th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–6.

Every game

How often the Panthers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Falcons	L 10–24	32%	−32
Week 2	vs Saints	L 17–20	10%	−10
Week 3	@ Seahawks	L 27–37	15%	−15
Week 4	vs Vikings	L 13–21	6%	−6
Week 5	@ Lions	L 24–42	3%	−3
Week 6	@ Dolphins	L 21–42	5%	−5
Week 8	vs Texans	W 15–13	48%	+52
Week 9	vs Colts	L 13–27	21%	−21
Week 10	@ Bears	L 13–16	6%	−6
Week 11	vs Cowboys	L 10–33	2%	−2
Week 12	@ Titans	L 10–17	13%	−13
Week 13	@ Buccaneers	L 18–21	9%	−9
Week 14	@ Saints	L 6–28	6%	−6
Week 15	vs Falcons	W 9–7	71%	+29
Week 16	vs Packers	L 30–33	37%	−37
Week 17	@ Jaguars	L 0–26	2%	−2
Week 18	vs Buccaneers	L 0–9	22%	−22

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −32 @ ATL

Wk 2 −10 vs NO

Wk 3 −15 @ SEA

Wk 4 −6 vs MIN

Wk 5 −3 @ DET

Wk 6 −5 @ MIA

Wk 8 +52 vs HOU

Wk 9 −21 vs IND

Wk 10 −6 @ CHI

Wk 11 −2 vs DAL

Wk 12 −13 @ TEN

Wk 13 −9 @ TB

Wk 14 −6 @ NO

Wk 15 +29 vs ATL

Wk 16 −37 vs GB

Wk 17 −2 @ JAX

Wk 18 −22 vs TB

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Panthers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Judgment calls	+0.14	+3.7
3rd & 4th downs	+0.12	−2.9
Injuries	+0.06	+1.3
Fumble bounces	−0.20	−7.1
Drops	−0.28	−10.3
Kicks	−0.66	−14.6