luckadjusted

Week 1 2023 · September 10, 2023

Panthers at Falcons, Week 1 2023: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Panthers 24–10 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: drops alone were worth 2.1 points to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 6:48 left): the Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 6, worth 29 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final

Carolina Panthers 10
Atlanta Falcons 24

September 10, 2023 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −3.5

Luck index +32 Falcons lucky · −32 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 3, Falcons win 7.

  1. 1 CAR 34 ATL 16
  2. 2 CAR 16 ATL 7
  3. 3 CAR 20 ATL 17
  4. 4 CAR 22 ATL 24
  5. 5 CAR 17 ATL 23
  6. 6 CAR 16 ATL 26
  7. 7 CAR 19 ATL 32
  8. 8 CAR 23 ATL 38
  9. 9 CAR 13 ATL 33
  10. 10 CAR 0 ATL 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 32% of them, Falcons 68%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+4.3%
Panthers by 9–169.2%
Panthers by 1–814.9%
Level after regulation3.9%
Falcons by 1–823.6%
Falcons by 9–1619.8%
Falcons by 17+24.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Falcons by 14. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Falcons by 10.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. Pineiro, 43 yds made · 86% expected
  • Y. Koo, 49 yds made · 81% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

As low as 37% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:58 The Panthers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +7% CAR CAR: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 6:14 The Panthers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +11% ATL CAR: Turnover
3 Q2 13:09 Illegal Shift on the Falcons (Drake London), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 1 flag in 819 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +9% CAR CAR: Touchdown
4 Q3 10:24 The Falcons got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +7% ATL ATL: Punt
5 Q3 6:48 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedThe Panthers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's handsUnnecessary Roughness on the Panthers (Ian Thomas), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 8 flags in 2508 snaps before, position avg 1 per 286 +29% ATL CAR: Turnover
6 Q3 4:56 Y. Koo made 49-yard field goalKicks · 81% expected for him, 37 of 44 from 45+ before +7% ATL ATL: Touchdown
7 Q3 2:58 Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (Tre Flowers), 9 yardsJudgment calls · 17 flags in 3132 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +9% CAR CAR: Turnover
8 Q4 11:42 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedFalse Start on the Panthers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +7% ATL CAR: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Matt Hennessy (ATL C), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Adetokunbo Ogundeji (ATL LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Austin Corbett (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 4% · Falcons 96%

Final margin
Falcons by 14
Luck in points
3.7 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 10.3
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 32% · Falcons 68% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2023 games · Panthers · Falcons

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