luckadjusted

Week 1 2023 · September 10, 2023

Bengals at Browns, Week 1 2023: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Bengals 24–3, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Browns win 9 of 10. The Bengals had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 3.4 points to the Bengals.

An off day for the Bengals: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Browns they would win 49% of the time; with this day’s form, 12%. The numbers

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q1, 5:06 left): the Browns converted 3rd & 4, worth 9 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 3
Cleveland Browns 24

September 10, 2023 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −1

Luck index +12 Browns about even · −12 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 1, Browns win 9.

  1. 1 CIN 20 CLE 13
  2. 2 CIN 17 CLE 19
  3. 3 CIN 18 CLE 22
  4. 4 CIN 21 CLE 29
  5. 5 CIN 9 CLE 21
  6. 6 CIN 13 CLE 28
  7. 7 CIN 9 CLE 27
  8. 8 CIN 20 CLE 41
  9. 9 CIN 7 CLE 33
  10. 10 CIN 13 CLE 46

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Bengals

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Browns they would win 49% of the time; with this day’s form, 12%.

37 points apart for the Bengals: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Bengals offenseEPA per play gained −0.34 +0.15 worse by 0.49
Bengals defenseEPA per play allowed −0.01 +0.07 better by 0.07
Browns offenseEPA per play gained −0.01 +0.09 worse by 0.09
Browns defenseEPA per play allowed −0.34 +0.09 better by 0.43

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 12% of them, Browns 88%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 21.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+1.1%
Bengals by 9–162.9%
Bengals by 1–87.0%
Level after regulation1.3%
Browns by 1–818.0%
Browns by 9–1620.9%
Browns by 17+48.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Browns by 21. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Browns by 13.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Hopkins, 42 yds made · 83% expected
  • E. McPherson, 42 yds made · 85% expected
  • E. McPherson, 51 yds missed · 73% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 34 yds made · 93% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 43 yds made · 82% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:55 The Bengals got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% CIN CIN: Punt
2 Q1 14:11 The Bengals converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +7% CIN CIN: Punt
3 Q1 13:34 The Bengals got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% CIN CIN: Punt
4 Q1 12:52 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +5% CLE CIN: Punt
5 Q1 5:06 The Browns converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +9% CLE CLE: Turnover
6 Q1 3:44 The Browns fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% CLE CLE: Field goal
7 Q3 12:48 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Denzel Ward), 18 yardsJudgment calls · 16 flags in 3389 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +6% CIN CIN: Field goal
8 Q3 6:57 E. McPherson missed 51-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him, 24 of 30 from 45+ before +9% CLE CIN: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • La'el Collins (CIN T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jackson Carman (CIN G), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 1% · Browns 99%

Final margin
Browns by 21
Luck in points
7.3 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 13.7
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 12% · Browns 88% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2023 games · Bengals · Browns

More from Week 1 2023