luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2023 NFL season · September 7, 2023–September 11

Week 1 2023: who deserved to win

3 of 16 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Lions beat the Chiefs 21–20 in a game they win 21% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 1 2023 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 8 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Rams 30–13 @ Seahawks 37% 68% Deserved
Lions 21–20 @ Chiefs 38% 21% Lucky
Buccaneers 20–17 @ Vikings 38% 18% Lucky
Raiders 17–16 @ Broncos 41% 40% Lucky
Dolphins 36–34 @ Chargers 41% 44% Coin flip
Jets 22–16 vs Bills 43% 59% Coin flip
Browns 24–3 vs Bengals 47% 87% Deserved
Packers 38–20 @ Bears 47% 59% Coin flip

Week 1 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Buccaneers W 20–17 @ Vikings 18% +82
2 Lions W 21–20 @ Chiefs 21% +79
3 Raiders W 17–16 @ Broncos 40% +60
4 Dolphins W 36–34 @ Chargers 44% +56
5 Packers W 38–20 @ Bears 59% +41
6 Jets W 22–16 vs Bills 59% +41
7 Rams W 30–13 @ Seahawks 68% +32
8 Falcons W 24–10 vs Panthers 68% +32
9 49ers W 30–7 @ Steelers 71% +29
10 Eagles W 25–20 @ Patriots 72% +28
11 Saints W 16–15 vs Titans 82% +18
12 Ravens W 25–9 vs Texans 82% +18
13 Browns W 24–3 vs Bengals 87% +13
14 Commanders W 20–16 vs Cardinals 87% +13
15 Jaguars W 31–21 @ Colts 96% +4
16 Cowboys W 40–0 @ Giants 100% 0
17 Giants L 0–40 vs Cowboys 0% 0
18 Colts L 21–31 vs Jaguars 4% −4
19 Cardinals L 16–20 @ Commanders 13% −13
20 Bengals L 3–24 @ Browns 13% −13
21 Texans L 9–25 @ Ravens 18% −18
22 Titans L 15–16 @ Saints 18% −18
23 Patriots L 20–25 vs Eagles 28% −28
24 Steelers L 7–30 vs 49ers 29% −29
25 Panthers L 10–24 @ Falcons 32% −32
26 Seahawks L 13–30 vs Rams 32% −32
27 Bills L 16–22 @ Jets 41% −41
28 Bears L 20–38 vs Packers 41% −41
29 Chargers L 34–36 vs Dolphins 56% −56
30 Broncos L 16–17 vs Raiders 60% −60
31 Chiefs L 20–21 vs Lions 79% −79
32 Vikings L 17–20 vs Buccaneers 82% −82