2023 season · final

Seattle Seahawks, 2023: game by game

The Seahawks went 9–8 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 7.4 wins. Luck added 1.6: the 6th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–4.

Every game

How often the Seahawks win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Rams	L 13–30	33%	−33
Week 2	@ Lions	W 37–31	67%	+33
Week 3	vs Panthers	W 37–27	86%	+14
Week 4	@ Giants	W 24–3	89%	+11
Week 6	@ Bengals	L 13–17	73%	−73
Week 7	vs Cardinals	W 20–10	87%	+13
Week 8	vs Browns	W 24–20	43%	+57
Week 9	@ Ravens	L 3–37	2%	−2
Week 10	vs Commanders	W 29–26	55%	+45
Week 11	@ Rams	L 16–17	24%	−24
Week 12	vs 49ers	L 13–31	2%	−2
Week 13	@ Cowboys	L 35–41	31%	−31
Week 14	@ 49ers	L 16–28	3%	−3
Week 15	vs Eagles	W 20–17	18%	+82
Week 16	@ Titans	W 20–17	46%	+54
Week 17	vs Steelers	L 23–30	35%	−35
Week 18	@ Cardinals	W 21–20	43%	+57

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −33 vs LA

Wk 2 +33 @ DET

Wk 3 +14 vs CAR

Wk 4 +11 @ NYG

Wk 6 −73 @ CIN

Wk 7 +13 vs ARI

Wk 8 +57 vs CLE

Wk 9 −2 @ BAL

Wk 10 +45 vs WAS

Wk 11 −24 @ LA

Wk 12 −2 vs SF

Wk 13 −31 @ DAL

Wk 14 −3 @ SF

Wk 15 +82 vs PHI

Wk 16 +54 @ TEN

Wk 17 −35 vs PIT

Wk 18 +57 @ ARI

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Seahawks’ favor.

Kind	Points	Per game
Kicks	+0.2	+0.01
Rest	−1.0	−0.06
Fumble bounces	−1.6	−0.09
Drops	−3.3	−0.20
Injuries	−5.5	−0.33
Judgment calls	−15.4	−0.91
3rd & 4th downs	−17.5	−1.03