2023 season · final

Seattle Seahawks, 2023: game by game

The Seahawks went 9–8 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 7.5 wins. Luck added 1.5: the 5th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–4.

Every game

How often the Seahawks win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Rams	L 13–30	32%	−32
Week 2	@ Lions	W 37–31	67%	+33
Week 3	vs Panthers	W 37–27	85%	+15
Week 4	@ Giants	W 24–3	88%	+12
Week 6	@ Bengals	L 13–17	77%	−77
Week 7	vs Cardinals	W 20–10	88%	+12
Week 8	vs Browns	W 24–20	41%	+59
Week 9	@ Ravens	L 3–37	2%	−2
Week 10	vs Commanders	W 29–26	73%	+27
Week 11	@ Rams	L 16–17	22%	−22
Week 12	vs 49ers	L 13–31	2%	−2
Week 13	@ Cowboys	L 35–41	15%	−15
Week 14	@ 49ers	L 16–28	2%	−2
Week 15	vs Eagles	W 20–17	31%	+69
Week 16	@ Titans	W 20–17	61%	+39
Week 17	vs Steelers	L 23–30	25%	−25
Week 18	@ Cardinals	W 21–20	42%	+58

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −32 vs LA

Wk 2 +33 @ DET

Wk 3 +15 vs CAR

Wk 4 +12 @ NYG

Wk 6 −77 @ CIN

Wk 7 +12 vs ARI

Wk 8 +59 vs CLE

Wk 9 −2 @ BAL

Wk 10 +27 vs WAS

Wk 11 −22 @ LA

Wk 12 −2 vs SF

Wk 13 −15 @ DAL

Wk 14 −2 @ SF

Wk 15 +69 vs PHI

Wk 16 +39 @ TEN

Wk 17 −25 vs PIT

Wk 18 +58 @ ARI

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Seahawks’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Kicks	+0.52	+0.3
Fumble bounces	+0.07	−1.6
Rest	−0.04	−1.0
Drops	−0.06	−1.5
Injuries	−0.08	−4.3
3rd & 4th downs	−0.18	−15.4
Judgment calls	−0.18	−9.2