Week 18 2023 · January 7, 2024
Seahawks at Cardinals, Week 18 2023: who deserved to win?
The Seahawks beat the Cardinals 21–20, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Seahawks win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 55 points of win probability to the Seahawks.
Before kickoff the Seahawks were 57% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:01 left): M. Prater missed a 51-yard field goal, worth 54 points of win probability to the Seahawks.
Final
 Seattle Seahawks | 21 |
|---|---|
 Arizona Cardinals | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +58 Seahawks lucky · −58 Cardinals
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Seahawks win 4, Cardinals win 6.
- 1 SEA 34 ARI 17
- 2 SEA 26 ARI 17
- 3 SEA 34 ARI 29
- 4 SEA 23 ARI 21
- 5 SEA 7 ARI 9
- 6 SEA 13 ARI 17
- 7 SEA 16 ARI 22
- 8 SEA 24 ARI 34
- 9 SEA 14 ARI 28
- 10 SEA 10 ARI 30
Your call
Did the Seahawks earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Seahawks win 42% of them, Cardinals 58%, counting the 8% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Seahawks by 17+ | 6.5% |
| Seahawks by 9–16 | 12.3% |
| Seahawks by 1–8 | 23.2% |
| Level after regulation | 7.7% |
| Cardinals by 1–8 | 25.7% |
| Cardinals by 9–16 | 14.8% |
| Cardinals by 17+ | 9.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Myers, 33 yds made · 95% expected
- M. Prater, 23 yds made · 99% expected
- M. Prater, 34 yds made · 95% expected
- J. Myers, 29 yds made · 97% expected
- M. Prater, 43 yds missed · 86% expected
- M. Prater, 51 yds missed · 74% expected
Penalties: Seahawks 0 for 0 yards, Cardinals 5 for 27 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:09 | False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SEA +0.8 pts |
| Q2 6:18 | Offensive Offside on the Cardinals (Michael Wilson), 4 yards · pre-snap | +3% SEA +1.2 pts |
| Q2 2:19 | False Start on the Cardinals (Trey McBride), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SEA +0.5 pts |
| Q2 0:59 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals, 8 yards, wiping out the play | +3% ARI +0.6 pts |
| Q4 10:25 | False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SEA +0.6 pts |
Seahawks penalties, every game · Cardinals penalties, every game · All teams, 2023
When it happened
Cardinals’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 95%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 11:54 | The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +6% SEA | ARI: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 8:33 | The Seahawks converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +10% SEA | SEA: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q4 15:00 | The Cardinals converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +12% ARI | ARI: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 9:52 | The Cardinals converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +15% ARI | ARI: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 3:00 | M. Prater missed a 43-yard field goalKicks · 86% expected for him | +6% SEA | ARI: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q4 1:54 | The Seahawks’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedR. Moore dropped a catchable passDrops · 8 drops on 95 catchable balls before this | +33% SEA | SEA: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q4 0:46 | The Cardinals converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +22% ARI | ARI: Missed field goal |
| 8 | Q4 0:01 | The game turned hereM. Prater missed a 51-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him, 46 of 63 from 45+ before | +54% SEA | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Marquise Brown (ARI WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- D.J. Humphries (ARI T), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Divaad Wilson (ARI CB), out · 0.5 pts
- Kyzir White (ARI LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Jonathan Ledbetter (ARI DE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Carter O'Donnell (ARI T), out · 0.4 pts
- Garrett Williams (ARI CB), out · 0.4 pts
- Dante Stills (ARI DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Josh Woods (ARI LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Dennis Daley (ARI T), out · 0.3 pts
- Abraham Lucas (SEA T), out · 0.8 pts
- Jamal Adams (SEA SS), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Jarran Reed (SEA NT), out · 0.3 pts
- Phil Haynes (SEA G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Seahawks 14% · Cardinals 86%
- Final margin
- Seahawks by 1
- Luck in points
- 7.6 for the Seahawks
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Cardinals by 6.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Seahawks 42% · Cardinals 58% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2023 games · 
Seahawks · 
Cardinals
More from Week 18 2023
- Steelers at Ravens PIT 17–10 · replay 11% for the winner
- Texans at Colts HOU 23–19 · replay 38% for the winner
- Falcons at Saints NO 48–17 · replay 73% for the winner
- Browns at Bengals CIN 31–14 · replay 94% for the winner
- Jaguars at Titans TEN 28–20 · replay 30% for the winner
- Vikings at Lions DET 30–20 · replay 86% for the winner
- Jets at Patriots NYJ 17–3 · replay 97% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Panthers TB 9–0 · replay 78% for the winner
- Bears at Packers GB 17–9 · replay 85% for the winner
- Cowboys at Commanders DAL 38–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Broncos at Raiders LV 27–14 · replay 81% for the winner
- Chiefs at Chargers KC 13–12 · replay 80% for the winner
- Rams at 49ers LA 21–20 · replay 44% for the winner
- Eagles at Giants NYG 27–10 · replay 56% for the winner
- Bills at Dolphins BUF 21–14 · replay 52% for the winner