luckadjusted

Week 18 2023 · January 7, 2024

Falcons at Saints, Week 18 2023: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Falcons 48–17 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Saints were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 11:02 left): the Falcons converted 3rd & 5, worth 16 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 17
New Orleans Saints 48

January 7, 2024 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Saints −3.5

Luck index +40 Saints lucky · −40 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 4, Saints win 6.

  1. 1 ATL 31 NO 13
  2. 2 ATL 31 NO 20
  3. 3 ATL 23 NO 17
  4. 4 ATL 35 NO 33
  5. 5 ATL 27 NO 30
  6. 6 ATL 21 NO 26
  7. 7 ATL 26 NO 35
  8. 8 ATL 34 NO 47
  9. 9 ATL 10 NO 29
  10. 10 ATL 7 NO 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 40% of them, Saints 60%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 31.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+8.1%
Falcons by 9–1612.5%
Falcons by 1–818.6%
Level after regulation2.7%
Saints by 1–825.6%
Saints by 9–1615.4%
Saints by 17+17.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Saints by 31. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Saints by 17.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Grupe, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • Y. Koo, 30 yds made · 98% expected
  • B. Grupe, 24 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 30% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:02 The Falcons converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +16% ATL ATL: Touchdown
2 Q2 13:37 The Saints converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +10% NO NO: Touchdown
3 Q2 5:21 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +5% ATL NO: Punt
4 Q2 1:03 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +6% ATL NO: Field goal
5 Q2 0:37 The Falcons converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +7% ATL ATL: Field goal
6 Q2 0:03 Y. Koo made 30-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him +5% NO ATL: Turnover
7 Q3 13:45 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedThe Falcons threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +11% NO ATL: Punt
8 Q3 1:17 The Falcons were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +5% NO ATL: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ryan Ramczyk (NO T), out (IR) · 1.6 pts
  • Marshon Lattimore (NO CB), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Marcus Maye (NO FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Alvin Kamara (NO RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Taylor Heinicke (ATL QB), out, replaced by d.ridder · 1.3 pts
  • Drew Dalman (ATL C), out · 0.6 pts
  • DeMarcco Hellams (ATL SS), out · 0.2 pts
  • Kentavius Street (ATL DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 0% · Saints 100%

Final margin
Saints by 31
Luck in points
13.5 for the Saints
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 17.5
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 40% · Saints 60% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2023 games · Falcons · Saints

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