luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 18 2023 · January 7, 2024

Falcons at Saints, Week 18 2023: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Falcons 48–17, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Saints were 60% favorites.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 17
New Orleans Saints 48

January 7, 2024 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Saints −3.5

Luck index +27 Saints lucky · −27 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 3, Saints win 7.

  1. 1 ATL 29 NO 10
  2. 2 ATL 34 NO 24
  3. 3 ATL 30 NO 27
  4. 4 ATL 14 NO 16
  5. 5 ATL 14 NO 19
  6. 6 ATL 29 NO 37
  7. 7 ATL 19 NO 30
  8. 8 ATL 21 NO 37
  9. 9 ATL 13 NO 33
  10. 10 ATL 14 NO 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 27% of them, Saints 73%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 31.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+4.3%
Falcons by 9–168.2%
Falcons by 1–814.6%
Level after regulation3.1%
Saints by 1–823.7%
Saints by 9–1619.4%
Saints by 17+26.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +11.6 points to the Saints: the final margin was Saints by 31, without the luck Saints by 19.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Grupe, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • Y. Koo, 30 yds made · 98% expected
  • B. Grupe, 24 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Falcons 8 for 75 yards, Saints 3 for 15 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:42 Unnecessary Roughness on the Falcons (MyCole Pruitt), 15 yards +2% NO +1.4 pts
Q1 8:42 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ATL +0.8 pts
Q1 8:09 Unnecessary Roughness on the Falcons (Clark Phillips), 15 yards +3% NO +1.6 pts
Q2 10:25 Offensive Holding on the Falcons (MyCole Pruitt), 10 yards +4% NO +1.7 pts
Q2 2:01 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Falcons, 6 yards · pre-snap +3% NO +0.9 pts
Q2 1:55 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Falcons (Calais Campbell), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NO +0.6 pts
Q4 9:31 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards +1% NO +0.9 pts
Q4 9:09 Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (Clark Phillips), 9 yards 0% NO +1.1 pts
Q4 9:05 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ATL +0.8 pts
Q4 6:39 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ATL +0.2 pts
Q4 5:55 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NO +0.4 pts

Falcons penalties, every game · Saints penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 30% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:02 The Falcons converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +7% ATL ATL: Touchdown
2 Q1 2:21 The Saints converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +4% NO NO: Touchdown
3 Q2 13:37 The Saints converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +7% NO NO: Touchdown
4 Q2 10:25 Offensive Holding on the Falcons (MyCole Pruitt), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 2647 snaps before, position avg 1 per 286 +4% NO NO: Punt
5 Q2 5:21 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +5% ATL NO: Punt
6 Q2 1:03 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +5% ATL NO: Field goal
7 Q2 0:37 The Falcons converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +5% ATL ATL: Field goal
8 Q3 1:17 The Falcons were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +5% NO ATL: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ryan Ramczyk (NO T), out (IR) · 1.6 pts
  • Marshon Lattimore (NO CB), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Marcus Maye (NO FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Alvin Kamara (NO RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Taylor Heinicke (ATL QB), out, replaced by d.ridder · 1.3 pts
  • Drew Dalman (ATL C), out · 0.6 pts
  • DeMarcco Hellams (ATL SS), out · 0.2 pts
  • Kentavius Street (ATL DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 0% · Saints 100%

Final margin
Saints by 31
Luck in points
11.6 for the Saints
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 19.4
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 27% · Saints 73% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2023 games · Falcons · Saints

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