luckadjusted

Week 18 2023 · January 7, 2024

Jaguars at Titans, Week 18 2023: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Jaguars 28–20, but the Jaguars played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 2.5 points to the Titans.

Before kickoff the Jaguars were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 6:40 left): the Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 3, worth 19 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 20
Tennessee Titans 28

January 7, 2024 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Jaguars −3.5

Luck index +70 Titans very lucky · −70 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 7, Titans win 3.

  1. 1 JAX 31 TEN 6
  2. 2 JAX 24 TEN 6
  3. 3 JAX 30 TEN 16
  4. 4 JAX 27 TEN 17
  5. 5 JAX 31 TEN 24
  6. 6 JAX 27 TEN 23
  7. 7 JAX 23 TEN 21
  8. 8 JAX 17 TEN 20
  9. 9 JAX 14 TEN 24
  10. 10 JAX 10 TEN 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 70% of them, Titans 30%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+22.7%
Jaguars by 9–1620.7%
Jaguars by 1–825.9%
Level after regulation3.6%
Titans by 1–815.4%
Titans by 9–168.0%
Titans by 17+3.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Titans by 8. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Titans by 7.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 44 yds made · 80% expected
  • B. McManus, 30 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 47% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:00 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +5% JAX JAX: Field goal
2 Q1 6:05 The Titans converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +9% TEN TEN: Touchdown
3 Q1 4:06 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedZ. Jones dropped a catchable passDrops · 9 drops on 145 catchable balls before this +7% TEN JAX: Punt
4 Q2 10:55 The Titans converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +10% TEN TEN: Touchdown
5 Q2 6:40 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expectedThe Jaguars were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +19% TEN JAX: Turnover
6 Q4 10:45 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars (Brenton Strange), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 444 snaps before, position avg 1 per 286 +15% TEN TEN: Punt
7 Q4 7:18 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +7% TEN JAX: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 7:14 The Jaguars were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +8% TEN JAX: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jeffery Simmons (TEN DT), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Kristian Fulton (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (TEN WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Amani Hooker (TEN FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Daniel Brunskill (TEN C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jaelyn Duncan (TEN T), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jack Gibbens (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Ryan Stonehouse (TEN P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Christian Kirk (JAX WR), out · 0.8 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 20% · Titans 80%

Final margin
Titans by 8
Luck in points
0.9 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 7.1
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 70% · Titans 30% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2023 games · Jaguars · Titans

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