luckadjusted

Week 18 2023 · January 6, 2024

Texans at Colts, Week 18 2023: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Colts 23–19, but the Colts played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: drops alone were worth 1.9 points to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Texans were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:06 left): the Colts were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 36 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Houston Texans 23
Indianapolis Colts 19

January 6, 2024 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Texans −1.5

Luck index +66 Texans very lucky · −66 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 3, Colts win 7.

  1. 1 HOU 27 IND 7
  2. 2 HOU 19 IND 10
  3. 3 HOU 37 IND 34
  4. 4 HOU 17 IND 19
  5. 5 HOU 27 IND 31
  6. 6 HOU 34 IND 41
  7. 7 HOU 17 IND 26
  8. 8 HOU 17 IND 30
  9. 9 HOU 12 IND 29
  10. 10 HOU 7 IND 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 34% of them, Colts 66%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+6.1%
Texans by 9–1610.7%
Texans by 1–817.0%
Level after regulation2.4%
Colts by 1–825.9%
Colts by 9–1618.4%
Colts by 17+19.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Texans by 4. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Texans by 4.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Gay, 38 yds made · 91% expected
  • M. Gay, 52 yds made · 73% expected
  • M. Gay, 57 yds missed · 65% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 51 yds made · 72% expected
  • M. Gay, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 66%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 9:56 The Colts’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +6% IND IND: Missed field goal
2 Q3 3:44 K. Fairbairn made 51-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 27 of 41 from 45+ before +9% HOU HOU: Touchdown
3 Q3 1:43 Unnecessary Roughness on the Texans (Desmond King), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 24 flags in 3973 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +8% IND IND: Field goal
4 Q4 10:54 The Texans converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +7% HOU HOU: Touchdown
5 Q4 10:19 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yardsJudgment calls +7% IND IND: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 2:27 The Colts converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +14% IND IND: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 1:48 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +9% HOU IND: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 1:06 The Colts were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expectedT. Goodson dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 6 catchable balls before this +36% HOU IND: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Julian Blackmon (IND FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Tank Dell (HOU WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Tytus Howard (HOU T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Jonathan Greenard (HOU DE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Robert Woods (HOU WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Tavierre Thomas (HOU CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Noah Brown (HOU WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jimmie Ward (HOU FS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 57% · Colts 43%

Final margin
Texans by 4
Luck in points
0.7 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 4.7
Replay with same day's form
Texans 34% · Colts 66% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2023 games · Texans · Colts

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