Week 18 2023 · January 6, 2024
Steelers at Ravens, Week 18 2023: who deserved to win?
The Steelers beat the Ravens 17–10, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 25 points of win probability to the Steelers.
The Steelers won on an off day: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Ravens they would win 59% of the time; with this day’s form, 11%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Steelers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 13:27 left): the Steelers fumbled and recovered it themselves, worth 9 points of win probability to the Steelers.
Final
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 17 |
|---|---|
 Baltimore Ravens | 10 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +89 Steelers very lucky · −89 Ravens
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Steelers win 1, Ravens win 9.
- 1 PIT 17 BAL 10
- 2 PIT 10 BAL 13
- 3 PIT 19 BAL 24
- 4 PIT 13 BAL 20
- 5 PIT 3 BAL 13
- 6 PIT 3 BAL 16
- 7 PIT 7 BAL 23
- 8 PIT 0 BAL 19
- 9 PIT 14 BAL 37
- 10 PIT 8 BAL 40
Your call
Did the Steelers earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Steelers won on an off day
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Ravens they would win 59% of the time; with this day’s form, 11%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
48 points apart for the Steelers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.08 | +0.05 | better by 0.04 |
| Steelers defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.17 | +0.09 | better by 0.26 |
| Ravens offenseEPA per play gained | −0.17 | +0.14 | worse by 0.31 |
| Ravens defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.08 | +0.01 | worse by 0.07 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Steelers win 11% of them, Ravens 89%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Steelers by 17+ | 0.7% |
| Steelers by 9–16 | 2.5% |
| Steelers by 1–8 | 6.7% |
| Level after regulation | 1.9% |
| Ravens by 1–8 | 17.3% |
| Ravens by 9–16 | 23.3% |
| Ravens by 17+ | 47.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Boswell, 25 yds made · 98% expected
- J. Tucker, 36 yds made · 91% expected
Penalties: Steelers 4 for 25 yards, Ravens 3 for 26 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 0:05 | Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BAL +0.4 pts |
| Q2 12:55 | False Start on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BAL +0.7 pts |
| Q2 7:47 | Ineligible Downfield Kick on the Ravens (Trenton Simpson), 6 yards | +1% PIT +0.4 pts |
| Q2 7:36 | Offensive Holding on the Steelers (Connor Heyward), 10 yards | +3% BAL +0.9 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Delay of Game on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% PIT +0.9 pts |
| Q3 11:02 | Delay of Game on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% BAL +0.8 pts |
| Q4 14:49 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Ravens (Nnamdi Madubuike), 15 yards | +6% PIT +1.2 pts |
Steelers penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2023
When it happened
Ravens’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 63%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 13:33 | The Ravens fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% PIT | BAL: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 4:25 | The Ravens converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +8% BAL | BAL: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 0:43 | The Steelers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +8% PIT | PIT: Turnover |
| 4 | Q3 13:35 | L. Treadwell dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 8 catchable balls before this | +9% PIT | BAL: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 13:27 | The Steelers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +9% PIT | PIT: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 1:41 | The Steelers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +8% PIT | PIT: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 15:00 | The Steelers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +8% PIT | PIT: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 14:49 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Ravens (Nnamdi Madubuike), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 9 flags in 2344 snaps before, position avg 1 per 316 | +6% PIT | PIT: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Lamar Jackson (BAL QB), out, replaced by t.huntley · 4.4 pts
- Zay Flowers (BAL WR), out · 1.4 pts
- Marlon Humphrey (BAL CB), out · 1.4 pts
- Kyle Hamilton (BAL SS), out · 0.8 pts
- Mark Andrews (BAL TE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Kevin Zeitler (BAL G), out · 0.4 pts
- Minkah Fitzpatrick (PIT FS), out · 0.9 pts
- Damontae Kazee (PIT SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Trenton Thompson (PIT SS), out · 0.3 pts
- Mitchell Trubisky (PIT QB), out, replaced by m.rudolph · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Steelers 11% · Ravens 89%
- Final margin
- Steelers by 7
- Luck in points
- 20.9 for the Steelers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ravens by 13.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Steelers 11% · Ravens 89% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2023 games · 
Steelers · 
Ravens
More from Week 18 2023
- Texans at Colts HOU 23–19 · replay 38% for the winner
- Falcons at Saints NO 48–17 · replay 73% for the winner
- Browns at Bengals CIN 31–14 · replay 94% for the winner
- Jaguars at Titans TEN 28–20 · replay 30% for the winner
- Vikings at Lions DET 30–20 · replay 86% for the winner
- Jets at Patriots NYJ 17–3 · replay 97% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Panthers TB 9–0 · replay 78% for the winner
- Bears at Packers GB 17–9 · replay 85% for the winner
- Cowboys at Commanders DAL 38–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Broncos at Raiders LV 27–14 · replay 81% for the winner
- Chiefs at Chargers KC 13–12 · replay 80% for the winner
- Rams at 49ers LA 21–20 · replay 44% for the winner
- Eagles at Giants NYG 27–10 · replay 56% for the winner
- Seahawks at Cardinals SEA 21–20 · replay 42% for the winner
- Bills at Dolphins BUF 21–14 · replay 52% for the winner