Week 18 2023 · January 6, 2024
Steelers at Ravens, Week 18 2023: who deserved to win?
The Steelers stole one. They beat the Ravens 17–10, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 8 of 10. Luck ran their way: injuries alone were worth 7.5 points to the Steelers.
The Steelers won on an off day: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Ravens they would win 60% of the time; with this day’s form, 17%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Steelers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 15:00 left): the Steelers converted 3rd & 4, worth 34 points of win probability to the Steelers.
Final
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 17 |
|---|---|
 Baltimore Ravens | 10 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +83 Steelers very lucky · −83 Ravens
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Steelers win 2, Ravens win 8.
- 1 PIT 20 BAL 7
- 2 PIT 24 BAL 21
- 3 PIT 20 BAL 23
- 4 PIT 7 BAL 12
- 5 PIT 20 BAL 27
- 6 PIT 12 BAL 23
- 7 PIT 6 BAL 19
- 8 PIT 7 BAL 24
- 9 PIT 23 BAL 45
- 10 PIT 14 BAL 42
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Steelers won on an off day
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Ravens they would win 60% of the time; with this day’s form, 17%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
43 points apart for the Steelers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.08 | +0.05 | better by 0.04 |
| Steelers defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.17 | +0.09 | better by 0.26 |
| Ravens offenseEPA per play gained | −0.17 | +0.14 | worse by 0.31 |
| Ravens defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.08 | +0.01 | worse by 0.07 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Steelers win 17% of them, Ravens 83%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Steelers by 17+ | 1.5% |
| Steelers by 9–16 | 4.0% |
| Steelers by 1–8 | 10.5% |
| Level after regulation | 1.8% |
| Ravens by 1–8 | 19.3% |
| Ravens by 9–16 | 24.6% |
| Ravens by 17+ | 38.4% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Steelers by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Ravens by 12.9.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Boswell, 25 yds made · 99% expected
- J. Tucker, 36 yds made · 90% expected
When it happened
Ravens’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 63%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 11:15 | The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedThe Steelers fumbled and the Ravens recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +15% BAL | PIT: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 4:25 | The Ravens converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +8% BAL | BAL: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 0:43 | The Steelers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +9% PIT | PIT: Turnover |
| 4 | Q2 0:12 | The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedThe Steelers fumbled and the Ravens recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +17% BAL | PIT: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 13:35 | The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 18% expectedL. Treadwell dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 8 catchable balls before this | +9% PIT | BAL: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 13:27 | The Steelers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +9% PIT | PIT: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 1:41 | The Steelers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected | +8% PIT | PIT: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 15:00 | The Steelers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +34% PIT | PIT: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Lamar Jackson (BAL QB), out, replaced by t.huntley · 4.4 pts
- Zay Flowers (BAL WR), out · 1.4 pts
- Marlon Humphrey (BAL CB), out · 1.4 pts
- Kyle Hamilton (BAL SS), out · 0.8 pts
- Mark Andrews (BAL TE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Kevin Zeitler (BAL G), out · 0.4 pts
- Minkah Fitzpatrick (PIT FS), out · 0.9 pts
- Damontae Kazee (PIT SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Trenton Thompson (PIT SS), out · 0.3 pts
- Mitchell Trubisky (PIT QB), out, replaced by m.rudolph · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Steelers 18% · Ravens 82%
- Final margin
- Steelers by 7
- Luck in points
- 20.0 for the Steelers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ravens by 13.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Steelers 17% · Ravens 83% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2023 games · 
Steelers · 
Ravens
More from Week 18 2023
- Texans at Colts HOU 23–19 · replay 34% for the winner
- Falcons at Saints NO 48–17 · replay 60% for the winner
- Browns at Bengals CIN 31–14 · replay 93% for the winner
- Jaguars at Titans TEN 28–20 · replay 30% for the winner
- Vikings at Lions DET 30–20 · replay 72% for the winner
- Jets at Patriots NYJ 17–3 · replay 93% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Panthers TB 9–0 · replay 79% for the winner
- Bears at Packers GB 17–9 · replay 90% for the winner
- Cowboys at Commanders DAL 38–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Broncos at Raiders LV 27–14 · replay 82% for the winner
- Chiefs at Chargers KC 13–12 · replay 88% for the winner
- Rams at 49ers LA 21–20 · replay 58% for the winner
- Eagles at Giants NYG 27–10 · replay 51% for the winner
- Seahawks at Cardinals SEA 21–20 · replay 43% for the winner
- Bills at Dolphins BUF 21–14 · replay 52% for the winner