luckadjusted

2023 season · final

Pittsburgh Steelers, 2023: game by game

The Steelers went 10–7 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 7.4 wins. Luck added 2.6: the 3rd-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 9–2.

Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.1.

Every game

How often the Steelers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs 49ers L 7–30 30% −30
Week 2 vs Browns W 26–22 49% +51
Week 3 @ Raiders W 23–18 57% +43
Week 4 @ Texans L 6–30 13% −13
Week 5 vs Ravens W 17–10 44% +56
Week 7 @ Rams W 24–17 21% +79
Week 8 vs Jaguars L 10–20 8% −8
Week 9 vs Titans W 20–16 67% +33
Week 10 vs Packers W 23–19 49% +51
Week 11 @ Browns L 10–13 54% −54
Week 12 @ Bengals W 16–10 85% +15
Week 13 vs Cardinals L 10–24 58% −58
Week 14 vs Patriots L 18–21 53% −53
Week 15 @ Colts L 13–30 4% −4
Week 16 vs Bengals W 34–11 69% +31
Week 17 @ Seahawks W 30–23 65% +35
Week 18 @ Ravens W 17–10 17% +83
Wild Card @ Bills L 17–31 8% −8

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Steelers’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Drops+22.3+1.31
Judgment calls+15.0+0.88
Injuries+13.7+0.81
Kicks+9.4+0.56
Fumble bounces+6.3+0.37
Rest+1.4+0.08
3rd & 4th downs−6.1−0.36