2023 season · final
Pittsburgh Steelers, 2023: game by game
The Steelers went 10–7 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.1 wins. Luck added 1.9: the 4th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 9–2.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.1.
Every game
How often the Steelers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs 49ers | L 7–30 | 29% | −29 |
| Week 2 | vs Browns | W 26–22 | 46% | +54 |
| Week 3 | @ Raiders | W 23–18 | 59% | +41 |
| Week 4 | @ Texans | L 6–30 | 7% | −7 |
| Week 5 | vs Ravens | W 17–10 | 65% | +35 |
| Week 7 | @ Rams | W 24–17 | 21% | +79 |
| Week 8 | vs Jaguars | L 10–20 | 6% | −6 |
| Week 9 | vs Titans | W 20–16 | 80% | +20 |
| Week 10 | vs Packers | W 23–19 | 49% | +51 |
| Week 11 | @ Browns | L 10–13 | 71% | −71 |
| Week 12 | @ Bengals | W 16–10 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 13 | vs Cardinals | L 10–24 | 58% | −58 |
| Week 14 | vs Patriots | L 18–21 | 54% | −54 |
| Week 15 | @ Colts | L 13–30 | 2% | −2 |
| Week 16 | vs Bengals | W 34–11 | 81% | +19 |
| Week 17 | @ Seahawks | W 30–23 | 75% | +25 |
| Week 18 | @ Ravens | W 17–10 | 11% | +89 |
| Wild Card | @ Bills | L 17–31 | 7% | −7 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Steelers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Drops | +0.53 | +26.3 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.46 | +9.0 |
| Injuries | +0.29 | +10.3 |
| Kicks | +0.25 | +9.8 |
| Judgment calls | +0.17 | +6.4 |
| Rest | +0.04 | +1.4 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.10 | −7.6 |