luckadjusted

Week 14 2023 · December 7, 2023

Patriots at Steelers, Week 14 2023: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Steelers 21–18, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Patriots win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 2.7 points to the Patriots.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:01 left): the Steelers were stopped on 4th & 2, worth 22 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Final

New England Patriots 21
Pittsburgh Steelers 18

December 7, 2023 · Acrisure Stadium · Closing line: Steelers −6

Luck index +53 Patriots lucky · −53 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Patriots win 5, Steelers win 5.

  1. 1 NE 21 PIT 0
  2. 2 NE 32 PIT 17
  3. 3 NE 26 PIT 16
  4. 4 NE 26 PIT 20
  5. 5 NE 23 PIT 21
  6. 6 NE 24 PIT 26
  7. 7 NE 10 PIT 16
  8. 8 NE 17 PIT 28
  9. 9 NE 13 PIT 27
  10. 10 NE 9 PIT 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Patriots win 47% of them, Steelers 53%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Patriots by 17+11.4%
Patriots by 9–1614.3%
Patriots by 1–820.3%
Level after regulation4.9%
Steelers by 1–820.3%
Steelers by 9–1616.7%
Steelers by 17+12.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Patriots by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Patriots by 17.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Patriots were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:03 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots, 11 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +14% PIT PIT: Field goal
2 Q1 5:57 Offensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Hunter Henry), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 14 flags in 3798 snaps before, position avg 1 per 286 +7% PIT PIT: Punt
3 Q2 15:00 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedThe Steelers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +14% NE PIT: Punt
4 Q4 15:00 The Steelers were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +8% NE PIT: Touchdown
5 Q4 7:13 The Steelers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +8% PIT PIT: Punt
6 Q4 3:32 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +7% PIT NE: Punt
7 Q4 2:05 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +8% NE PIT: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 2:01 The Steelers were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +22% NE PIT: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Keanu Neal (PIT FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Cole Holcomb (PIT LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kwon Alexander (PIT LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Kendrick Bourne (NE WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • DeVante Parker (NE WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Demario Douglas (NE WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Rhamondre Stevenson (NE RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Vederian Lowe (NE T), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Patriots 99% · Steelers 1%

Final margin
Patriots by 3
Luck in points
14.7 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 17.7
Replay with same day's form
Patriots 47% · Steelers 53% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2023 games · Patriots · Steelers

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