luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 14 2023 · December 7, 2023

Patriots at Steelers, Week 14 2023: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Steelers 21–18, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Patriots win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:01 left): the Steelers were stopped on 4th & 2, worth 22 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Final

New England Patriots 21
Pittsburgh Steelers 18

December 7, 2023 · Acrisure Stadium · Closing line: Steelers −6

Luck index +54 Patriots lucky · −54 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Patriots win 5, Steelers win 5.

  1. 1 NE 22 PIT 0
  2. 2 NE 19 PIT 6
  3. 3 NE 16 PIT 6
  4. 4 NE 30 PIT 24
  5. 5 NE 31 PIT 29
  6. 6 NE 17 PIT 20
  7. 7 NE 17 PIT 22
  8. 8 NE 6 PIT 16
  9. 9 NE 12 PIT 27
  10. 10 NE 16 PIT 39

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Patriots win 46% of them, Steelers 54%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Patriots by 17+10.5%
Patriots by 9–1614.3%
Patriots by 1–820.6%
Level after regulation5.4%
Steelers by 1–821.2%
Steelers by 9–1616.2%
Steelers by 17+11.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.2 points to the Steelers: the final margin was Patriots by 3, without the luck Patriots by 12.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Patriots 7 for 59 yards, Steelers 1 for 5 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:03 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots, 11 yards, wiping out the play +14% PIT +5.5 pts
Q1 5:57 Offensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Hunter Henry), 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% PIT +2.4 pts
Q2 3:44 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Kyle Dugger), 5 yards +1% PIT +0.5 pts
Q2 2:50 Unnecessary Roughness on the Patriots (Brenden Schooler), 11 yards +3% PIT +0.6 pts
Q3 7:18 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards +1% PIT +1.0 pts
Q4 11:55 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots, 7 yards +4% PIT +1.1 pts
Q4 5:06 False Start on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NE +0.4 pts
Q4 1:55 False Start on the Patriots (Hunter Henry), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PIT +0.3 pts

Patriots penalties, every game · Steelers penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Patriots were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:37 The Patriots converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +6% NE NE: Touchdown
2 Q1 9:03 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots, 11 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +14% PIT PIT: Field goal
3 Q1 5:57 Offensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Hunter Henry), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 14 flags in 3798 snaps before, position avg 1 per 286 +7% PIT PIT: Punt
4 Q4 15:00 The Steelers were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +8% NE PIT: Touchdown
5 Q4 7:13 The Steelers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +6% PIT PIT: Punt
6 Q4 3:32 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +7% PIT NE: Punt
7 Q4 2:05 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +8% NE PIT: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 2:01 The Steelers were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +22% NE PIT: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Keanu Neal (PIT FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Cole Holcomb (PIT LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kwon Alexander (PIT LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Kendrick Bourne (NE WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • DeVante Parker (NE WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Demario Douglas (NE WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Rhamondre Stevenson (NE RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Vederian Lowe (NE T), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Patriots 98% · Steelers 2%

Final margin
Patriots by 3
Luck in points
9.2 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 12.2
Replay with same day's form
Patriots 46% · Steelers 54% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2023 games · Patriots · Steelers

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