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NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 14 2023 · December 10, 2023

Vikings at Raiders, Week 14 2023: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Raiders 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Vikings win 9 of 10. The Raiders had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Raiders.

An off day for the Raiders: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Vikings they would win 39% of the time; with this day’s form, 5%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Vikings were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:34 left): the Vikings converted 3rd & 6, worth 16 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 3
Las Vegas Raiders 0

December 10, 2023 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −3

Luck index +5 Vikings about even · −5 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 9, Raiders win 1.

  1. 1 MIN 39 LV 10
  2. 2 MIN 30 LV 6
  3. 3 MIN 30 LV 10
  4. 4 MIN 23 LV 6
  5. 5 MIN 21 LV 6
  6. 6 MIN 20 LV 8
  7. 7 MIN 12 LV 3
  8. 8 MIN 20 LV 16
  9. 9 MIN 15 LV 13
  10. 10 MIN 16 LV 22

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Raiders

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Vikings they would win 39% of the time; with this day’s form, 5%.

34 points apart for the Raiders: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Vikings offenseEPA per play gained −0.20 +0.11 worse by 0.31
Vikings defenseEPA per play allowed −0.32 +0.08 better by 0.40
Raiders offenseEPA per play gained −0.32 +0.08 worse by 0.40
Raiders defenseEPA per play allowed −0.20 +0.11 better by 0.31

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 95% of them, Raiders 5%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+57.7%
Vikings by 9–1621.6%
Vikings by 1–814.7%
Level after regulation0.7%
Raiders by 1–84.3%
Raiders by 9–160.8%
Raiders by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.7 points to the Raiders: the final margin was Vikings by 3, without the luck Vikings by 4.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Joseph, 49 yds missed · 71% expected
  • G. Joseph, 36 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Vikings 5 for 36 yards, Raiders 4 for 37 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:09 Offensive Holding on the Raiders (Austin Hooper), 10 yards +1% MIN +0.9 pts
Q1 3:48 Intentional Grounding on the Raiders (Aidan O'Connell), 12 yards +3% MIN +1.1 pts
Q2 2:08 Illegal Contact on the Raiders (Jack Jones), 5 yards +4% MIN +0.9 pts
Q3 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Josh Oliver), 10 yards +2% LV +0.9 pts
Q3 9:39 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards +5% MIN +1.5 pts
Q4 14:10 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% LV +0.7 pts
Q4 7:51 False Start on the Vikings (T.J. Hockenson), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LV +0.2 pts
Q4 5:31 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Vikings (NaJee Thompson), 10 yards +9% LV +0.9 pts
Q4 2:13 Delay of Game on the Vikings, 6 yards · pre-snap +6% LV +0.7 pts

Vikings penalties, every game · Raiders penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 69%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 5:37 G. Joseph missed a 49-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him, 18 of 32 from 45+ before +8% LV MIN: Punt
2 Q3 10:57 The Raiders converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +10% LV LV: Turnover
3 Q4 14:10 K. Osborn dropped a catchable passDrops · 9 drops on 119 catchable balls before thisFalse Start on the Vikings, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +7% LV MIN: Punt
4 Q4 6:14 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +7% MIN LV: Punt
5 Q4 5:31 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Vikings (NaJee Thompson), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 139 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +9% LV LV: Turnover
6 Q4 4:35 The Vikings converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +9% MIN MIN: Field goal
7 Q4 2:34 The Vikings converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +16% MIN MIN: Field goal
8 Q4 1:57 The Raiders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 50% of interception-worthy throws +11% MIN LV: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brian Hoyer (LV QB), out, replaced by a.o'connell · 1.1 pts
  • Kolton Miller (LV T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Kirk Cousins (MIN QB), out (IR), replaced by j.dobbs · 6.2 pts
  • Jordan Hicks (MIN LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Ed Ingram (MIN G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Marcus Davenport (MIN LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 54% · Raiders 46%

Final margin
Vikings by 3
Luck in points
1.7 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 4.7
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 95% · Raiders 5% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2023 games · Vikings · Raiders

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