luckadjusted

Week 14 2023 · December 10, 2023

Vikings at Raiders, Week 14 2023: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Raiders 3–0, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Vikings win 9 of 10. The Raiders had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 5.2 points to the Raiders.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:34 left): the Vikings converted 3rd & 6, worth 17 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 3
Las Vegas Raiders 0

December 10, 2023 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −3

Luck index +12 Vikings about even · −12 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 9, Raiders win 1.

  1. 1 MIN 30 LV 0
  2. 2 MIN 23 LV 0
  3. 3 MIN 19 LV 0
  4. 4 MIN 16 LV 0
  5. 5 MIN 23 LV 10
  6. 6 MIN 22 LV 12
  7. 7 MIN 23 LV 16
  8. 8 MIN 17 LV 12
  9. 9 MIN 13 LV 10
  10. 10 MIN 6 LV 13

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 88% of them, Raiders 12%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+41.8%
Vikings by 9–1625.7%
Vikings by 1–820.1%
Level after regulation1.6%
Raiders by 1–88.1%
Raiders by 9–162.3%
Raiders by 17+0.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Vikings by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Vikings by 6.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Joseph, 49 yds missed · 72% expected
  • G. Joseph, 36 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 69%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 5:37 G. Joseph missed 49-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 18 of 32 from 45+ before +8% LV MIN: Punt
2 Q2 1:18 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +8% LV MIN: Punt
3 Q3 10:57 The Raiders converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +15% LV LV: Turnover
4 Q4 14:10 K. Osborn dropped a catchable passDrops · 9 drops on 119 catchable balls before thisFalse Start on the Vikings, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +10% LV MIN: Punt
5 Q4 5:31 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Vikings (NaJee Thompson), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 139 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +9% LV LV: Turnover
6 Q4 4:35 The Vikings converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +9% MIN MIN: Field goal
7 Q4 2:34 The Vikings converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +17% MIN MIN: Field goal
8 Q4 1:57 The Raiders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +11% MIN LV: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brian Hoyer (LV QB), out, replaced by a.o'connell · 1.1 pts
  • Kolton Miller (LV T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Kirk Cousins (MIN QB), out (IR), replaced by j.dobbs · 6.2 pts
  • Jordan Hicks (MIN LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Ed Ingram (MIN G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Marcus Davenport (MIN LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 57% · Raiders 43%

Final margin
Vikings by 3
Luck in points
3.3 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 6.3
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 88% · Raiders 12% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2023 games · Vikings · Raiders

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