luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 14 2023 · December 10, 2023

Eagles at Cowboys, Week 14 2023: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Eagles 33–13, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 10:52 left): Return touchdown by the Eagles, worth 10 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 13
Dallas Cowboys 33

December 10, 2023 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −3.5

Luck index +24 Cowboys about even · −24 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 2, Cowboys win 8.

  1. 1 PHI 27 DAL 14
  2. 2 PHI 27 DAL 24
  3. 3 PHI 19 DAL 21
  4. 4 PHI 16 DAL 19
  5. 5 PHI 20 DAL 26
  6. 6 PHI 7 DAL 16
  7. 7 PHI 20 DAL 31
  8. 8 PHI 7 DAL 22
  9. 9 PHI 14 DAL 33
  10. 10 PHI 10 DAL 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 24% of them, Cowboys 76%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+1.9%
Eagles by 9–165.6%
Eagles by 1–815.0%
Level after regulation4.2%
Cowboys by 1–829.2%
Cowboys by 9–1623.5%
Cowboys by 17+20.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.6 points to the Cowboys: the final margin was Cowboys by 20, without the luck Cowboys by 13.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Aubrey, 60 yds made · 66% expected
  • J. Elliott, 52 yds made · 72% expected
  • J. Elliott, 44 yds made · 85% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 59 yds made · 67% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 45 yds made · 87% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 50 yds made · 77% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Eagles 9 for 85 yards, Cowboys 7 for 60 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:48 Illegal Use of Hands on the Cowboys (Micah Parsons), 5 yards +1% PHI +0.3 pts
Q1 7:12 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.8 pts
Q1 6:41 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.4 pts
Q1 6:15 Offensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (A.J. Brown), 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% DAL +2.4 pts
Q1 5:42 False Start on the Cowboys (CeeDee Lamb), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.4 pts
Q1 2:44 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% PHI +2.5 pts
Q1 1:39 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Darius Slay), 15 yards +7% DAL +2.9 pts
Q1 1:34 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% PHI +2.5 pts
Q2 0:51 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Kelee Ringo), 15 yards, wiping out the play 0% DAL +1.3 pts
Q3 15:00 Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (Micah Parsons), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.4 pts
Q3 11:11 Fair Catch Interference on the Eagles (Josh Jobe), 15 yards +1% DAL +1.2 pts
Q3 7:31 Clipping on the Cowboys, 15 yards +2% PHI +2.0 pts
Q3 6:05 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% PHI +2.0 pts
Q4 14:20 Defensive Offside on the Eagles (Jalen Carter), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.5 pts
Q4 12:49 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (James Bradberry), 10 yards +1% DAL +1.8 pts
Q4 7:37 Offensive Offside on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +1.4 pts

Eagles penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:41 The Eagles converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedFalse Start on the Eagles, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +6% PHI PHI: Turnover
2 Q1 6:15 Offensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (A.J. Brown), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 9 flags in 4271 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +6% DAL DAL: Field goal
3 Q1 5:50 The Eagles fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% DAL PHI: Field goal
4 Q1 5:06 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +5% DAL DAL: Field goal
5 Q1 2:44 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% PHI PHI: Field goal
6 Q1 1:39 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Darius Slay), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 19 flags in 4725 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +7% DAL DAL: Field goal
7 Q1 1:34 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% PHI PHI: Field goal
8 Q3 10:52 The Cowboys fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the EaglesSpecial teams +10% PHI DAL: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Nakobe Dean (PHI LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 4% · Cowboys 96%

Final margin
Cowboys by 20
Luck in points
6.6 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 13.4
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 24% · Cowboys 76% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2023 games · Eagles · Cowboys

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