luckadjusted

Week 14 2023 · December 10, 2023

Eagles at Cowboys, Week 14 2023: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Eagles 33–13 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Eagles had the bounces: drops alone were worth 2.7 points to the Eagles.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 10:52 left): the Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 10, worth 17 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 13
Dallas Cowboys 33

December 10, 2023 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −3.5

Luck index +26 Cowboys lucky · −26 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 3, Cowboys win 7.

  1. 1 PHI 28 DAL 14
  2. 2 PHI 19 DAL 14
  3. 3 PHI 23 DAL 21
  4. 4 PHI 22 DAL 24
  5. 5 PHI 17 DAL 21
  6. 6 PHI 10 DAL 17
  7. 7 PHI 21 DAL 31
  8. 8 PHI 7 DAL 20
  9. 9 PHI 24 DAL 41
  10. 10 PHI 7 DAL 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 26% of them, Cowboys 74%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+2.1%
Eagles by 9–166.2%
Eagles by 1–814.9%
Level after regulation4.6%
Cowboys by 1–828.1%
Cowboys by 9–1624.0%
Cowboys by 17+20.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Cowboys by 20. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cowboys by 13.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Aubrey, 60 yds made · 63% expected
  • J. Elliott, 52 yds made · 73% expected
  • J. Elliott, 44 yds made · 84% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 59 yds made · 64% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 45 yds made · 86% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 50 yds made · 79% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:41 The Eagles converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedFalse Start on the Eagles, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +8% PHI PHI: Turnover
2 Q1 6:15 Offensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (A.J. Brown), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 9 flags in 4271 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +6% DAL DAL: Field goal
3 Q1 5:06 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +7% DAL DAL: Field goal
4 Q1 3:18 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expectedM. Gallup dropped a catchable passDrops · 5 drops on 98 catchable balls before this +7% PHI DAL: Field goal
5 Q1 3:15 The Cowboys converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +5% DAL DAL: Field goal
6 Q1 2:44 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% PHI PHI: Field goal
7 Q1 1:39 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Darius Slay), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 19 flags in 4725 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +7% DAL DAL: Field goal
8 Q3 10:52 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedThe Cowboys fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the EaglesSpecial teams +17% PHI DAL: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Nakobe Dean (PHI LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 8% · Cowboys 92%

Final margin
Cowboys by 20
Luck in points
6.7 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 13.3
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 26% · Cowboys 74% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2023 games · Eagles · Cowboys

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