luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2023 NFL season · December 7, 2023–December 11

Week 14 2023: who deserved to win

3 of 15 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Buccaneers beat the Falcons 29–25 in a game they win 23% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 14 2023 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 3 of 8 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Titans 28–27 @ Dolphins 15% 4% Lucky
Patriots 21–18 @ Steelers 33% 46% Coin flip
Giants 24–22 vs Packers 33% 37% Lucky
Jets 30–6 vs Texans 40% 85% Deserved
Bears 28–13 vs Lions 41% 95% Deserved
Broncos 24–7 @ Chargers 41% 85% Deserved
Bills 20–17 @ Chiefs 44% 54% Coin flip
Buccaneers 29–25 @ Falcons 46% 23% Lucky

Week 14 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Titans W 28–27 @ Dolphins 4% +96
2 Buccaneers W 29–25 @ Falcons 23% +77
3 Giants W 24–22 vs Packers 37% +63
4 Patriots W 21–18 @ Steelers 46% +54
5 Bills W 20–17 @ Chiefs 54% +46
6 Browns W 31–27 vs Jaguars 61% +39
7 Cowboys W 33–13 vs Eagles 76% +24
8 Jets W 30–6 vs Texans 85% +15
9 Broncos W 24–7 @ Chargers 85% +15
10 Ravens W 37–31 vs Rams 88% +12
11 Bengals W 34–14 vs Colts 89% +11
12 Saints W 28–6 vs Panthers 94% +6
13 Vikings W 3–0 @ Raiders 95% +5
14 Bears W 28–13 vs Lions 95% +5
15 49ers W 28–16 vs Seahawks 98% +2
16 Seahawks L 16–28 @ 49ers 2% −2
17 Lions L 13–28 @ Bears 5% −5
18 Raiders L 0–3 vs Vikings 5% −5
19 Panthers L 6–28 @ Saints 6% −6
20 Colts L 14–34 @ Bengals 11% −11
21 Rams L 31–37 @ Ravens 12% −12
22 Chargers L 7–24 vs Broncos 15% −15
23 Texans L 6–30 @ Jets 15% −15
24 Eagles L 13–33 @ Cowboys 24% −24
25 Jaguars L 27–31 @ Browns 39% −39
26 Chiefs L 17–20 vs Bills 46% −46
27 Steelers L 18–21 vs Patriots 54% −54
28 Packers L 22–24 @ Giants 63% −63
29 Falcons L 25–29 vs Buccaneers 77% −77
30 Dolphins L 27–28 vs Titans 96% −96