Week 14 2023 · December 10, 2023
Broncos at Chargers, Week 14 2023: who deserved to win?
The Broncos beat the Chargers 24–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Broncos win 9 of 10.
An off day for the Chargers: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Broncos they would win 47% of the time; with this day’s form, 15%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Chargers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 5:07 left): the Chargers were intercepted on a well-placed throw, worth 9 points of win probability to the Broncos.
Final
 Denver Broncos | 24 |
|---|---|
 Los Angeles Chargers | 7 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +15 Broncos about even · −15 Chargers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Broncos win 9, Chargers win 1.
- 1 DEN 45 LAC 10
- 2 DEN 31 LAC 6
- 3 DEN 33 LAC 13
- 4 DEN 30 LAC 13
- 5 DEN 34 LAC 20
- 6 DEN 27 LAC 16
- 7 DEN 14 LAC 6
- 8 DEN 33 LAC 28
- 9 DEN 17 LAC 16
- 10 DEN 16 LAC 24
Your call
Did the Broncos earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Chargers
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Broncos they would win 47% of the time; with this day’s form, 15%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
32 points apart for the Chargers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos offenseEPA per play gained | +0.06 | +0.04 | better by 0.01 |
| Broncos defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.54 | +0.11 | better by 0.64 |
| Chargers offenseEPA per play gained | −0.54 | +0.10 | worse by 0.63 |
| Chargers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.06 | +0.12 | better by 0.06 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Broncos win 85% of them, Chargers 15%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 17.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Broncos by 17+ | 44.6% |
| Broncos by 9–16 | 22.1% |
| Broncos by 1–8 | 18.2% |
| Level after regulation | 2.0% |
| Chargers by 1–8 | 8.3% |
| Chargers by 9–16 | 3.5% |
| Chargers by 17+ | 1.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Broncos 4 for 26 yards, Chargers 2 for 10 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:18 | Offensive Holding on the Broncos (Michael Burton), 9 yards | +2% LAC +0.8 pts |
| Q2 3:04 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Courtland Sutton), 10 yards | +3% LAC +0.9 pts |
| Q2 0:31 | Face Mask on the Chargers (Alohi Gilman), 5 yards | +1% DEN +0.9 pts |
| Q3 12:51 | Delay of Game on the Broncos, 4 yards · pre-snap | +2% LAC +0.7 pts |
| Q4 10:52 | Defensive Holding on the Broncos (Fabian Moreau), 3 yards | 0% LAC +0.4 pts |
| Q4 1:52 | Delay of Game on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DEN +0.2 pts |
Broncos penalties, every game · Chargers penalties, every game · All teams, 2023
When it happened
Chargers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 67%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:10 | The Broncos threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 49% of interception-worthy throws | +5% LAC | DEN: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 10:58 | The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +4% DEN | LAC: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q1 10:52 | The Chargers were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +9% DEN | LAC: Turnover |
| 4 | Q1 5:07 | The Chargers were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws | +9% DEN | LAC: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 14:31 | The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +4% LAC | DEN: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 2:42 | J. Williams dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 50 catchable balls before this | +4% LAC | DEN: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 8:53 | The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +6% DEN | LAC: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q3 8:11 | The Chargers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +5% DEN | LAC: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Joey Bosa (LAC DE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Josh Palmer (LAC WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Deane Leonard (LAC CB), out · 0.2 pts
- Kareem Jackson (DEN SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Broncos 100% · Chargers 0%
- Final margin
- Broncos by 17
- Luck in points
- 5.4 for the Broncos
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Broncos by 11.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Broncos 85% · Chargers 15% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2023 games · 
Broncos · 
Chargers
More from Week 14 2023
- Patriots at Steelers NE 21–18 · replay 46% for the winner
- Panthers at Saints NO 28–6 · replay 94% for the winner
- Lions at Bears CHI 28–13 · replay 95% for the winner
- Texans at Jets NYJ 30–6 · replay 85% for the winner
- Colts at Bengals CIN 34–14 · replay 89% for the winner
- Jaguars at Browns CLE 31–27 · replay 61% for the winner
- Rams at Ravens BAL 37–31 · replay 88% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Falcons TB 29–25 · replay 23% for the winner
- Vikings at Raiders MIN 3–0 · replay 95% for the winner
- Seahawks at 49ers SF 28–16 · replay 98% for the winner
- Bills at Chiefs BUF 20–17 · replay 54% for the winner
- Eagles at Cowboys DAL 33–13 · replay 76% for the winner
- Packers at Giants NYG 24–22 · replay 37% for the winner
- Titans at Dolphins TEN 28–27 · replay 4% for the winner