luckadjusted

Week 14 2023 · December 10, 2023

Rams at Ravens, Week 14 2023: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Rams 37–31, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 9 of 10. The Rams had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 6.1 points to the Rams.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (QOT, 8:11 left): D. Allen dropped a catchable pass, worth 28 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final (OT)

Los Angeles Rams 31
Baltimore Ravens 37

December 10, 2023 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −7.5

Luck index +13 Ravens about even · −13 Rams

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rams win 1, Ravens win 9.

  1. 1 LA 40 BAL 33
  2. 2 LA 17 BAL 19
  3. 3 LA 20 BAL 26
  4. 4 LA 21 BAL 30
  5. 5 LA 24 BAL 37
  6. 6 LA 24 BAL 40
  7. 7 LA 30 BAL 48
  8. 8 LA 20 BAL 43
  9. 9 LA 12 BAL 41
  10. 10 LA 13 BAL 50

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rams win 13% of them, Ravens 87%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rams by 17+1.3%
Rams by 9–162.9%
Rams by 1–87.5%
Level after regulation1.5%
Ravens by 1–818.1%
Ravens by 9–1620.3%
Ravens by 17+48.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Ravens by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Ravens by 13.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • L. Havrisik, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • L. Havrisik, 51 yds made · 69% expected
  • J. Tucker, 31 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Tucker, 47 yds made · 81% expected
  • J. Tucker, 33 yds made · 96% expected
  • L. Havrisik, 36 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 22% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Rams were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 6:32 The Rams converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +14% LA LA: Touchdown
2 Q4 8:09 The Rams fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +16% LA LA: Touchdown
3 Q4 1:22 The Ravens converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +26% BAL BAL: Touchdown
4 Q4 0:16 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +11% BAL LA: Field goal
5 QOT 9:11 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +11% LA BAL: Punt
6 QOT 9:07 The Rams fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +14% LA LA: Opp touchdown
7 QOT 8:11 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedD. Allen dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 5 catchable balls before thisDelay of Game on the Rams, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +28% BAL LA: Opp touchdown
8 QOT 8:07 Return touchdown by the RavensSpecial teams +26% BAL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Mark Andrews (BAL TE), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Tyler Higbee (LA TE), out · 0.8 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rams 1% · Ravens 99%

Final margin
Ravens by 6
Luck in points
7.7 for the Rams
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 13.7
Replay with same day's form
Rams 13% · Ravens 87% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2023 games · Rams · Ravens

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