Week 14 2023 · December 10, 2023
Rams at Ravens, Week 14 2023: who deserved to win?
The Ravens beat the Rams 37–31, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 9 of 10. The Rams had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 29 points of win probability to the Rams.
Before kickoff the Ravens were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (OT, 8:07 left): Return touchdown by the Ravens, worth 26 points of win probability to the Ravens.
Final (OT)
 Los Angeles Rams | 31 |
|---|---|
 Baltimore Ravens | 37 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +12 Ravens about even · −12 Rams
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rams win 1, Ravens win 9.
- 1 LA 20 BAL 13
- 2 LA 37 BAL 40
- 3 LA 24 BAL 30
- 4 LA 20 BAL 29
- 5 LA 30 BAL 41
- 6 LA 26 BAL 40
- 7 LA 20 BAL 37
- 8 LA 13 BAL 34
- 9 LA 7 BAL 32
- 10 LA 17 BAL 51
Your call
Did the Ravens earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Rams win 12% of them, Ravens 88%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rams by 17+ | 1.5% |
| Rams by 9–16 | 3.7% |
| Rams by 1–8 | 6.5% |
| Level after regulation | 1.6% |
| Ravens by 1–8 | 17.7% |
| Ravens by 9–16 | 22.4% |
| Ravens by 17+ | 46.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- L. Havrisik, 27 yds made · 97% expected
- L. Havrisik, 51 yds made · 68% expected
- J. Tucker, 31 yds made · 97% expected
- J. Tucker, 47 yds made · 81% expected
- J. Tucker, 33 yds made · 96% expected
- L. Havrisik, 36 yds made · 92% expected
Penalties: Rams 5 for 34 yards, Ravens 7 for 79 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:07 | Face Mask on the Ravens, 15 yards | +3% LA +1.8 pts |
| Q2 14:17 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Ravens (Marcus Williams), 15 yards | +6% LA +1.8 pts |
| Q2 12:29 | False Start on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% BAL +1.1 pts |
| Q2 7:32 | Defensive Offside on the Ravens (Tylan Wallace), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +4% LA +1.0 pts |
| Q2 5:53 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Kyle Hamilton), 15 yards | +2% LA +1.0 pts |
| Q2 5:06 | Face Mask on the Ravens (Roquan Smith), 8 yards | +2% LA +0.7 pts |
| Q2 5:00 | False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LA +0.6 pts |
| Q2 3:15 | Low Block on the Rams (Kyren Williams), 14 yards | +8% BAL +2.0 pts |
| Q3 14:23 | False Start on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BAL +0.4 pts |
| Q3 9:00 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 16 yards | +10% LA +2.4 pts |
| Q3 2:22 | Delay of Game on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BAL +0.1 pts |
| OT 8:11 | Delay of Game on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% BAL +0.6 pts |
Rams penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2023
When it happened
Ravens’ chance of winning
As low as 22% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 9:00 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 16 yardsJudgment calls · 27 flags in 4467 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 | +10% LA | LA: Punt |
| 2 | Q4 8:09 | The Rams fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +15% LA | LA: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q4 1:22 | The Ravens converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 21% expected | +18% BAL | BAL: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 0:16 | The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +11% BAL | LA: Field goal |
| 5 | OT 9:11 | The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +11% LA | BAL: Punt |
| 6 | OT 9:07 | The Rams fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +14% LA | LA: Opp touchdown |
| 7 | OT 8:11 | D. Allen dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 5 catchable balls before thisDelay of Game on the Rams, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +23% BAL | LA: Opp touchdown |
| 8 | OT 8:07 | Return touchdown by the RavensSpecial teams | +26% BAL | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Mark Andrews (BAL TE), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- Tyler Higbee (LA TE), out · 0.8 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rams 1% · Ravens 99%
- Final margin
- Ravens by 6
- Luck in points
- 5.1 for the Rams
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ravens by 11.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Rams 12% · Ravens 88% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2023 games · 
Rams · 
Ravens
More from Week 14 2023
- Patriots at Steelers NE 21–18 · replay 46% for the winner
- Panthers at Saints NO 28–6 · replay 94% for the winner
- Lions at Bears CHI 28–13 · replay 95% for the winner
- Texans at Jets NYJ 30–6 · replay 85% for the winner
- Colts at Bengals CIN 34–14 · replay 89% for the winner
- Jaguars at Browns CLE 31–27 · replay 61% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Falcons TB 29–25 · replay 23% for the winner
- Vikings at Raiders MIN 3–0 · replay 95% for the winner
- Seahawks at 49ers SF 28–16 · replay 98% for the winner
- Bills at Chiefs BUF 20–17 · replay 54% for the winner
- Broncos at Chargers DEN 24–7 · replay 85% for the winner
- Eagles at Cowboys DAL 33–13 · replay 76% for the winner
- Packers at Giants NYG 24–22 · replay 37% for the winner
- Titans at Dolphins TEN 28–27 · replay 4% for the winner