Week 14 2023 · December 10, 2023
Buccaneers at Falcons, Week 14 2023: who deserved to win?
The Buccaneers beat the Falcons 29–25, but the replays lean toward the Falcons: they take 8 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 20 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.
Before kickoff the Falcons were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:16 left): the Buccaneers converted 3rd & 10, worth 21 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.
Final
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 29 |
|---|---|
 Atlanta Falcons | 25 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +77 Buccaneers very lucky · −77 Falcons
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Buccaneers win 2, Falcons win 8.
- 1 TB 23 ATL 10
- 2 TB 20 ATL 17
- 3 TB 18 ATL 20
- 4 TB 10 ATL 14
- 5 TB 15 ATL 21
- 6 TB 17 ATL 26
- 7 TB 22 ATL 34
- 8 TB 10 ATL 27
- 9 TB 9 ATL 30
- 10 TB 15 ATL 43
Your call
Did the Buccaneers earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Buccaneers win 23% of them, Falcons 77%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Buccaneers by 17+ | 3.1% |
| Buccaneers by 9–16 | 6.3% |
| Buccaneers by 1–8 | 12.5% |
| Level after regulation | 1.5% |
| Falcons by 1–8 | 25.9% |
| Falcons by 9–16 | 21.0% |
| Falcons by 17+ | 29.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. McLaughlin, 55 yds made · 67% expected
- Y. Koo, 20 yds made · 100% expected
- Y. Koo, 50 yds missed · 79% expected
- Y. Koo, 52 yds missed · 76% expected
- C. McLaughlin, 38 yds made · 91% expected
Penalties: Buccaneers 4 for 26 yards, Falcons 2 for 10 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 1:16 | False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ATL +0.6 pts |
| Q3 14:00 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Buccaneers (Carlton Davis), 5 yards, wiping out the play | +16% ATL +3.0 pts |
| Q3 9:45 | False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TB +0.6 pts |
| Q4 14:14 | Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Buccaneers (Josh Hayes), 5 yards | +2% ATL +0.4 pts |
| Q4 13:23 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Zyon McCollum), 11 yards | +4% ATL +1.8 pts |
| Q4 1:28 | Defensive Holding on the Falcons (Clark Phillips), 5 yards | +8% TB +0.5 pts |
Buccaneers penalties, every game · Falcons penalties, every game · All teams, 2023
When it happened
Falcons’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 75%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:38 | The Falcons converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +10% ATL | ATL: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 4:24 | Y. Koo missed a 50-yard field goalKicks · 79% expected for him, 44 of 52 from 45+ before | +8% TB | ATL: Safety |
| 3 | Q2 2:44 | The Falcons fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +8% ATL | ATL: Missed field goal |
| 4 | Q3 14:00 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Buccaneers (Carlton Davis), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 32 flags in 4680 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 | +16% ATL | ATL: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 9:58 | C. Godwin dropped a catchable passDrops · 6 drops on 190 catchable balls before this | +8% ATL | TB: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 4:14 | The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +10% TB | TB: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 2:00 | The Buccaneers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expectedThe Buccaneers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +18% TB | TB: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 1:16 | The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +21% TB | TB: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Kaleb McGary (ATL T), out · 1.2 pts
- Drew Dalman (ATL C), out · 0.6 pts
- Jeff Okudah (ATL CB), out · 0.4 pts
- Grady Jarrett (ATL DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- David Onyemata (ATL DT), out · 0.4 pts
- Jamel Dean (TB CB), out · 0.7 pts
- Devin White (TB LB), out · 0.6 pts
- Vita Vea (TB NT), out · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Buccaneers 55% · Falcons 45%
- Final margin
- Buccaneers by 4
- Luck in points
- 4.1 for the Buccaneers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Falcons by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Buccaneers 23% · Falcons 77% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2023 games · 
Buccaneers · 
Falcons
More from Week 14 2023
- Patriots at Steelers NE 21–18 · replay 46% for the winner
- Panthers at Saints NO 28–6 · replay 94% for the winner
- Lions at Bears CHI 28–13 · replay 95% for the winner
- Texans at Jets NYJ 30–6 · replay 85% for the winner
- Colts at Bengals CIN 34–14 · replay 89% for the winner
- Jaguars at Browns CLE 31–27 · replay 61% for the winner
- Rams at Ravens BAL 37–31 · replay 88% for the winner
- Vikings at Raiders MIN 3–0 · replay 95% for the winner
- Seahawks at 49ers SF 28–16 · replay 98% for the winner
- Bills at Chiefs BUF 20–17 · replay 54% for the winner
- Broncos at Chargers DEN 24–7 · replay 85% for the winner
- Eagles at Cowboys DAL 33–13 · replay 76% for the winner
- Packers at Giants NYG 24–22 · replay 37% for the winner
- Titans at Dolphins TEN 28–27 · replay 4% for the winner