luckadjusted

Week 14 2023 · December 10, 2023

Colts at Bengals, Week 14 2023: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Colts 34–14, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bengals win 9 of 10. The Colts had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 4.0 points to the Colts.

Before kickoff the Bengals were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 1:40 left): Return touchdown by the Colts, worth 27 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Indianapolis Colts 14
Cincinnati Bengals 34

December 10, 2023 · Paycor Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −3

Luck index +12 Bengals about even · −12 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 1, Bengals win 9.

  1. 1 IND 10 CIN 3
  2. 2 IND 17 CIN 19
  3. 3 IND 14 CIN 19
  4. 4 IND 21 CIN 29
  5. 5 IND 3 CIN 14
  6. 6 IND 20 CIN 34
  7. 7 IND 6 CIN 23
  8. 8 IND 24 CIN 44
  9. 9 IND 6 CIN 31
  10. 10 IND 0 CIN 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 12% of them, Bengals 88%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+0.5%
Colts by 9–162.9%
Colts by 1–86.7%
Level after regulation1.8%
Bengals by 1–818.0%
Bengals by 9–1622.3%
Bengals by 17+47.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bengals by 20. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bengals by 15.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Gay, 38 yds missed · 90% expected
  • E. McPherson, 32 yds made · 96% expected
  • E. McPherson, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 1:19 M. Gay missed 38-yard field goalKicks · 90% expected for him +5% CIN IND: Touchdown
2 Q2 12:39 Leverage on the Colts (Taven Bryan), 8 yardsJudgment calls · 11 flags in 2469 snaps before, position avg 1 per 316 +5% CIN CIN: Touchdown
3 Q2 2:00 The Colts converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +6% IND IND: Touchdown
4 Q2 1:56 The Colts missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 94% of the time +4% CIN IND: Opp touchdown
5 Q2 1:40 The Bengals were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the ColtsSpecial teams +27% IND CIN: Punt
6 Q2 1:31 The Colts’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedT. Higgins dropped a catchable passDrops · 9 drops on 138 catchable balls before this +12% IND IND: End of half
7 Q2 1:28 Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Jaylon Jones), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 595 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +5% CIN CIN: Punt
8 Q2 1:24 J. Mixon dropped a catchable passDrops · 5 drops on 119 catchable balls before this +6% IND CIN: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Joe Burrow (CIN QB), out (IR), replaced by j.browning · 5.2 pts
  • Cam Taylor-Britt (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Braden Smith (IND T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Jonathan Taylor (IND RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Julius Brents (IND CB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 6% · Bengals 94%

Final margin
Bengals by 20
Luck in points
4.3 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 15.7
Replay with same day's form
Colts 12% · Bengals 88% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2023 games · Colts · Bengals

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