Week 14 2023 · December 10, 2023
Panthers at Saints, Week 14 2023: who deserved to win?
The Saints beat the Panthers 28–6, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Saints win 9 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 2.1 points to the Panthers.
An off day for the Panthers: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Saints they would win 37% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Saints were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 4:43 left): Return touchdown by the Saints, worth 26 points of win probability to the Saints.
Final
 Carolina Panthers | 6 |
|---|---|
 New Orleans Saints | 28 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +7 Saints about even · −7 Panthers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Panthers win 1, Saints win 9.
- 1 CAR 24 NO 17
- 2 CAR 17 NO 20
- 3 CAR 21 NO 28
- 4 CAR 19 NO 29
- 5 CAR 0 NO 13
- 6 CAR 10 NO 26
- 7 CAR 16 NO 34
- 8 CAR 3 NO 24
- 9 CAR 10 NO 36
- 10 CAR 0 NO 31
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Panthers
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Saints they would win 37% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
30 points apart for the Panthers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers offenseEPA per play gained | −0.12 | +0.01 | worse by 0.13 |
| Panthers defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.28 | +0.09 | better by 0.37 |
| Saints offenseEPA per play gained | −0.28 | +0.07 | worse by 0.35 |
| Saints defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.12 | +0.06 | better by 0.18 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Panthers win 7% of them, Saints 93%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 22.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Panthers by 17+ | 0.3% |
| Panthers by 9–16 | 1.2% |
| Panthers by 1–8 | 4.7% |
| Level after regulation | 0.6% |
| Saints by 1–8 | 14.6% |
| Saints by 9–16 | 20.8% |
| Saints by 17+ | 57.9% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Saints by 22. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Saints by 21.4.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- B. Grupe, 29 yds missed · 97% expected
- E. Pineiro, 47 yds made · 83% expected
- E. Pineiro, 29 yds made · 98% expected
- E. Pineiro, 41 yds missed · 88% expected
When it happened
Saints’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:07 | B. Grupe missed 29-yard field goalKicks · 97% expected for him | +9% CAR | NO: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 6:30 | The Panthers fumbled and the Saints recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +9% NO | CAR: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 5:00 | The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Saints (Derek Carr), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 4841 snaps before, position avg 1 per 643 | +10% CAR | NO: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 4:43 | The Panthers were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expectedThe Panthers fumbled and the Saints recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the SaintsSpecial teams | +26% NO | CAR: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q2 0:20 | The Saints were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +6% CAR | NO: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 3:43 | The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected | +7% CAR | NO: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 9:55 | The Panthers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +10% CAR | CAR: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 8:15 | The Panthers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected | +6% NO | CAR: Turnover on downs |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Michael Thomas (NO WR), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
- Marshon Lattimore (NO CB), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
- Marcus Maye (NO FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Rashid Shaheed (NO WR), out · 0.4 pts
- Hayden Hurst (CAR TE), out · 0.4 pts
- Austin Corbett (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Panthers 0% · Saints 100%
- Final margin
- Saints by 22
- Luck in points
- 0.6 for the Saints
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Saints by 21.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Panthers 7% · Saints 93% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2023 games · 
Panthers · 
Saints
More from Week 14 2023
- Patriots at Steelers NE 21–18 · replay 47% for the winner
- Lions at Bears CHI 28–13 · replay 85% for the winner
- Texans at Jets NYJ 30–6 · replay 65% for the winner
- Colts at Bengals CIN 34–14 · replay 88% for the winner
- Jaguars at Browns CLE 31–27 · replay 59% for the winner
- Rams at Ravens BAL 37–31 · replay 87% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Falcons TB 29–25 · replay 15% for the winner
- Vikings at Raiders MIN 3–0 · replay 88% for the winner
- Seahawks at 49ers SF 28–16 · replay 97% for the winner
- Bills at Chiefs BUF 20–17 · replay 53% for the winner
- Broncos at Chargers DEN 24–7 · replay 86% for the winner
- Eagles at Cowboys DAL 33–13 · replay 74% for the winner
- Packers at Giants NYG 24–22 · replay 27% for the winner
- Titans at Dolphins TEN 28–27 · replay 5% for the winner