luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 14 2023 · December 10, 2023

Panthers at Saints, Week 14 2023: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Panthers 28–6, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Saints win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Saints were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 4:43 left): Return touchdown by the Saints, worth 16 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final

Carolina Panthers 6
New Orleans Saints 28

December 10, 2023 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Saints −5.5

Luck index +6 Saints about even · −6 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 1, Saints win 9.

  1. 1 CAR 24 NO 19
  2. 2 CAR 27 NO 30
  3. 3 CAR 13 NO 19
  4. 4 CAR 16 NO 24
  5. 5 CAR 10 NO 20
  6. 6 CAR 6 NO 20
  7. 7 CAR 17 NO 34
  8. 8 CAR 0 NO 20
  9. 9 CAR 13 NO 37
  10. 10 CAR 9 NO 43

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 6% of them, Saints 94%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 22.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+0.2%
Panthers by 9–161.3%
Panthers by 1–84.5%
Level after regulation0.8%
Saints by 1–815.3%
Saints by 9–1621.3%
Saints by 17+56.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.4 points to the Saints: the final margin was Saints by 22, without the luck Saints by 20.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Grupe, 29 yds missed · 97% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 47 yds made · 83% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 29 yds made · 98% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 41 yds missed · 89% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Panthers 4 for 27 yards, Saints 3 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:00 Intentional Grounding on the Saints (Derek Carr), 10 yards +2% CAR +0.9 pts
Q2 4:37 Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers, 12 yards +2% NO +1.1 pts
Q2 2:00 Defensive Offside on the Saints (Bryan Bresee), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CAR +0.5 pts
Q2 1:29 Offensive Offside on the Panthers (Ihmir Smith-Marsette), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NO +0.5 pts
Q3 12:57 Encroachment on the Panthers (Shy Tuttle), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NO +2.5 pts
Q4 12:16 Tripping on the Saints (Nathan Shepherd), 15 yards +4% CAR +1.3 pts
Q4 4:00 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NO +0.6 pts

Panthers penalties, every game · Saints penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:07 B. Grupe missed a 29-yard field goalKicks · 97% expected for him +9% CAR NO: Punt
2 Q1 6:30 The Panthers fumbled and the Saints recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% NO CAR: Punt
3 Q1 5:00 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Saints (Derek Carr), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 4841 snaps before, position avg 1 per 643 +6% CAR NO: Punt
4 Q2 4:43 The Panthers fumbled and the Saints recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the SaintsSpecial teams +16% NO CAR: Turnover on downs
5 Q2 0:20 The Saints were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws +6% CAR NO: Punt
6 Q4 13:39 E. Pineiro missed a 41-yard field goalKicks · 89% expected for him +6% NO CAR: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 9:55 The Panthers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% CAR CAR: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 8:15 The Panthers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +6% NO CAR: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Michael Thomas (NO WR), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Marshon Lattimore (NO CB), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Marcus Maye (NO FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Rashid Shaheed (NO WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Hayden Hurst (CAR TE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Austin Corbett (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 0% · Saints 100%

Final margin
Saints by 22
Luck in points
1.5 for the Saints
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 20.5
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 6% · Saints 94% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2023 games · Panthers · Saints

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