luckadjusted

Week 14 2023 · December 10, 2023

Jaguars at Browns, Week 14 2023: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Jaguars 31–27, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Browns win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 2.0 points to the Browns.

Before kickoff the Browns were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 12:42 left): the Browns converted 4th & 3, worth 12 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 27
Cleveland Browns 31

December 10, 2023 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Browns −2.5

Luck index +41 Browns lucky · −41 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 4, Browns win 6.

  1. 1 JAX 49 CLE 24
  2. 2 JAX 31 CLE 16
  3. 3 JAX 32 CLE 23
  4. 4 JAX 34 CLE 31
  5. 5 JAX 37 CLE 39
  6. 6 JAX 23 CLE 29
  7. 7 JAX 10 CLE 19
  8. 8 JAX 18 CLE 31
  9. 9 JAX 20 CLE 38
  10. 10 JAX 21 CLE 47

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 41% of them, Browns 59%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+11.0%
Jaguars by 9–1613.5%
Jaguars by 1–816.2%
Level after regulation2.4%
Browns by 1–821.0%
Browns by 9–1617.1%
Browns by 17+18.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Browns by 4. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Browns by 7.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:45 The Browns converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +9% CLE CLE: Touchdown
2 Q2 10:49 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedThe Browns threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 44% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +7% JAX CLE: Turnover
3 Q2 4:45 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yardsJudgment calls +7% JAX JAX: Turnover
4 Q2 1:55 The Jaguars threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +6% CLE JAX: Punt
5 Q3 14:16 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 213rd & 4th downs · 13% expectedThe Jaguars fumbled and the Browns recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +9% CLE JAX: Punt
6 Q3 3:31 The Browns converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +7% CLE CLE: Punt
7 Q4 12:42 The Browns converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +12% CLE CLE: Touchdown
8 Q4 4:20 E. Engram dropped a catchable passDrops · 8 drops on 183 catchable balls before this +7% CLE JAX: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Denzel Ward (CLE CB), out · 1.1 pts
  • Dawand Jones (CLE T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Cam Robinson (JAX T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Christian Kirk (JAX WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Tyson Campbell (JAX CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Walker Little (JAX T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Tre Herndon (JAX CB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 8% · Browns 92%

Final margin
Browns by 4
Luck in points
3.4 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 7.4
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 41% · Browns 59% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2023 games · Jaguars · Browns

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