luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 14 2023 · December 10, 2023

Jaguars at Browns, Week 14 2023: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Jaguars 31–27, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Browns were 57% favorites.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 27
Cleveland Browns 31

December 10, 2023 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Browns −2.5

Luck index +39 Browns lucky · −39 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 4, Browns win 6.

  1. 1 JAX 36 CLE 14
  2. 2 JAX 36 CLE 25
  3. 3 JAX 17 CLE 10
  4. 4 JAX 13 CLE 10
  5. 5 JAX 20 CLE 23
  6. 6 JAX 13 CLE 20
  7. 7 JAX 19 CLE 30
  8. 8 JAX 10 CLE 27
  9. 9 JAX 19 CLE 40
  10. 10 JAX 9 CLE 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 39% of them, Browns 61%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+8.3%
Jaguars by 9–1612.1%
Jaguars by 1–817.2%
Level after regulation2.1%
Browns by 1–821.1%
Browns by 9–1617.3%
Browns by 17+21.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.0 points to the Jaguars: the final margin was Browns by 4, without the luck Browns by 6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Jaguars 7 for 40 yards, Browns 8 for 75 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 6:28 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.7 pts
Q1 2:11 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Jaguars (Elijah Cooks), 10 yards +3% CLE +0.9 pts
Q1 0:44 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Browns (Maurice Hurst Jr.), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% JAX +0.5 pts
Q1 0:16 Delay of Game on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.5 pts
Q2 6:14 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% JAX +0.7 pts
Q2 5:56 Illegal Formation on the Browns, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +5% JAX +1.7 pts
Q2 4:45 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards +7% JAX +1.7 pts
Q2 2:00 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CLE +0.4 pts
Q2 1:31 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% JAX +0.4 pts
Q3 14:16 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.3 pts
Q4 12:34 Unnecessary Roughness on the Browns (Mike Ford), 15 yards 0% JAX +1.4 pts
Q4 8:52 Delay of Game on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX 0.0 pts
Q4 6:12 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% JAX +1.0 pts
Q4 6:08 Encroachment on the Jaguars (Adam Gotsis), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.9 pts
Q4 1:50 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Anthony Walker), 25 yards +4% JAX +2.5 pts

Jaguars penalties, every game · Browns penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 7:03 The Browns fumbled and the Jaguars recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% JAX CLE: Punt
2 Q2 5:56 Illegal Formation on the Browns, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +5% JAX JAX: Turnover
3 Q2 4:45 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yardsJudgment calls +7% JAX JAX: Turnover
4 Q2 1:55 The Jaguars threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 49% of interception-worthy throws +6% CLE JAX: Punt
5 Q2 0:47 The Browns got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 49% of interception-worthy throws +5% CLE CLE: Punt
6 Q3 6:11 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +5% JAX JAX: Touchdown
7 Q3 3:31 The Browns converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +7% CLE CLE: Punt
8 Q4 12:42 The Browns converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +5% CLE CLE: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Denzel Ward (CLE CB), out · 1.1 pts
  • Dawand Jones (CLE T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Cam Robinson (JAX T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Christian Kirk (JAX WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Tyson Campbell (JAX CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Walker Little (JAX T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Tre Herndon (JAX CB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 11% · Browns 89%

Final margin
Browns by 4
Luck in points
2.0 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 6.0
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 39% · Browns 61% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2023 games · Jaguars · Browns

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