2023 season · final
Jacksonville Jaguars, 2023: game by game
The Jaguars went 9–8 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 10.0 wins. Luck cost them 1.0: the 9th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–4.
Every game
How often the Jaguars win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Colts | W 31–21 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 2 | vs Chiefs | L 9–17 | 66% | −66 |
| Week 3 | vs Texans | L 17–37 | 68% | −68 |
| Week 4 | vs Falcons | W 23–7 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 5 | vs Bills | W 25–20 | 14% | +86 |
| Week 6 | vs Colts | W 37–20 | 86% | +14 |
| Week 7 | @ Saints | W 31–24 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 8 | @ Steelers | W 20–10 | 94% | +6 |
| Week 10 | vs 49ers | L 3–34 | 2% | −2 |
| Week 11 | vs Titans | W 34–14 | 83% | +17 |
| Week 12 | @ Texans | W 24–21 | 43% | +57 |
| Week 13 | vs Bengals | L 31–34 | 35% | −35 |
| Week 14 | @ Browns | L 27–31 | 39% | −39 |
| Week 15 | vs Ravens | L 7–23 | 8% | −8 |
| Week 16 | @ Buccaneers | L 12–30 | 19% | −19 |
| Week 17 | vs Panthers | W 26–0 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 18 | @ Titans | L 20–28 | 70% | −70 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Jaguars’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Fumble bounces | +0.24 | −2.6 |
| Judgment calls | +0.17 | +20.4 |
| Drops | +0.09 | +8.7 |
| Injuries | +0.08 | +5.3 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.06 | −2.9 |
| Kicks | −0.08 | −1.7 |