Week 7 2023 · October 19, 2023
Jaguars at Saints, Week 7 2023: who deserved to win?
The Jaguars beat the Saints 31–24, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Jaguars win 9 of 10. The Saints had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 16 points of win probability to the Saints.
An off day for the Saints: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Jaguars they would win 54% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Saints were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:30 left): F. Moreau dropped a catchable pass, worth 14 points of win probability to the Jaguars.
Final
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 31 |
|---|---|
 New Orleans Saints | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +13 Jaguars about even · −13 Saints
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Jaguars win 9, Saints win 1.
- 1 JAX 40 NO 7
- 2 JAX 39 NO 14
- 3 JAX 41 NO 20
- 4 JAX 29 NO 12
- 5 JAX 22 NO 7
- 6 JAX 15 NO 3
- 7 JAX 18 NO 9
- 8 JAX 38 NO 33
- 9 JAX 22 NO 20
- 10 JAX 20 NO 27
Your call
Did the Jaguars earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Saints
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Jaguars they would win 54% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
41 points apart for the Saints: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars offenseEPA per play gained | +0.04 | +0.10 | worse by 0.06 |
| Jaguars defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.06 | +0.11 | better by 0.16 |
| Saints offenseEPA per play gained | −0.06 | +0.06 | worse by 0.12 |
| Saints defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.04 | +0.02 | worse by 0.02 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Jaguars win 87% of them, Saints 13%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Jaguars by 17+ | 46.5% |
| Jaguars by 9–16 | 21.5% |
| Jaguars by 1–8 | 17.8% |
| Level after regulation | 1.8% |
| Saints by 1–8 | 8.1% |
| Saints by 9–16 | 3.0% |
| Saints by 17+ | 1.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- B. Grupe, 51 yds missed · 72% expected
- B. Grupe, 23 yds made · 98% expected
- B. Grupe, 35 yds made · 94% expected
- B. McManus, 43 yds made · 87% expected
- B. Grupe, 42 yds made · 87% expected
Penalties: Jaguars 5 for 42 yards, Saints 3 for 34 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 13:44 | Defensive Holding on the Saints (Alontae Taylor), 5 yards | +2% JAX +0.8 pts |
| Q2 9:14 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Jaguars (Angelo Blackson), 15 yards | +5% NO +1.8 pts |
| Q2 5:50 | Fair Catch Interference on the Jaguars, 15 yards | +4% NO +1.4 pts |
| Q2 1:47 | False Start on the Jaguars (Evan Engram), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NO +0.5 pts |
| Q3 10:45 | Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards | +3% JAX +1.3 pts |
| Q3 9:49 | False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% NO +0.8 pts |
| Q3 0:49 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Jaguars (Rayshawn Jenkins), 2 yards | +1% NO +0.3 pts |
| Q4 9:40 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Paulson Adebo), 19 yards | +5% JAX +1.9 pts |
Jaguars penalties, every game · Saints penalties, every game · All teams, 2023
When it happened
Saints’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 5:21 | B. Grupe missed a 51-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 5 of 7 from 45+ before | +8% JAX | NO: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 3:33 | The Saints converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +7% NO | NO: Field goal |
| 3 | Q3 7:00 | The Saints threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 49% of interception-worthy throwsReturn touchdown by the JaguarsSpecial teams | +12% JAX | NO: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 7:35 | The Jaguars were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +9% NO | JAX: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 6:38 | The Saints’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +12% NO | NO: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 4:01 | The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +7% JAX | NO: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 0:30 | F. Moreau dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 47 catchable balls before this | +14% JAX | NO: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 0:25 | The Saints were stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedThe Saints got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 49% of interception-worthy throws | +7% JAX | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Ryan Ramczyk (NO T), out · 1.6 pts
- James Hurst (NO T), out · 0.6 pts
- Juwan Johnson (NO TE), out · 0.3 pts
- Tyson Campbell (JAX CB), out · 0.9 pts
- Walker Little (JAX T), out · 0.5 pts
- Zay Jones (JAX WR), out · 0.5 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Jaguars 90% · Saints 10%
- Final margin
- Jaguars by 7
- Luck in points
- 0.6 for the Saints
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Jaguars by 7.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Jaguars 87% · Saints 13% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2023 games · 
Jaguars · 
Saints
More from Week 7 2023
- Falcons at Buccaneers ATL 16–13 · replay 90% for the winner
- Bills at Patriots NE 29–25 · replay 18% for the winner
- Browns at Colts CLE 39–38 · replay 10% for the winner
- Lions at Ravens BAL 38–6 · replay 98% for the winner
- Raiders at Bears CHI 30–12 · replay 87% for the winner
- Commanders at Giants NYG 14–7 · replay 48% for the winner
- Cardinals at Seahawks SEA 20–10 · replay 88% for the winner
- Steelers at Rams PIT 24–17 · replay 21% for the winner
- Packers at Broncos DEN 19–17 · replay 78% for the winner
- Chargers at Chiefs KC 31–17 · replay 90% for the winner
- Dolphins at Eagles PHI 31–17 · replay 47% for the winner
- 49ers at Vikings MIN 22–17 · replay 63% for the winner