luckadjusted

Week 7 2023 · October 22, 2023

Packers at Broncos, Week 7 2023: who deserved to win?

The Broncos beat the Packers 19–17 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Packers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 3.1 points to the Packers.

Before kickoff the Broncos were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:52 left): the Packers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was picked, worth 44 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Final

Green Bay Packers 17
Denver Broncos 19

October 22, 2023 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Broncos −1.5

Luck index +37 Broncos lucky · −37 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 4, Broncos win 6.

  1. 1 GB 23 DEN 7
  2. 2 GB 19 DEN 10
  3. 3 GB 17 DEN 13
  4. 4 GB 23 DEN 21
  5. 5 GB 24 DEN 26
  6. 6 GB 20 DEN 24
  7. 7 GB 20 DEN 27
  8. 8 GB 27 DEN 38
  9. 9 GB 10 DEN 26
  10. 10 GB 10 DEN 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 37% of them, Broncos 63%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+4.5%
Packers by 9–1611.9%
Packers by 1–820.1%
Level after regulation2.7%
Broncos by 1–831.3%
Broncos by 9–1616.7%
Broncos by 17+12.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Broncos by 2. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Packers by 1.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Lutz, 32 yds made · 93% expected
  • W. Lutz, 29 yds made · 95% expected
  • A. Carlson, 43 yds missed · 82% expected
  • W. Lutz, 35 yds made · 91% expected
  • A. Carlson, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • W. Lutz, 52 yds made · 64% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

As low as 49% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:16 The Broncos converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +11% DEN DEN: Field goal
2 Q1 9:14 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% GB GB: Punt
3 Q2 0:46 A. Carlson missed 43-yard field goalKicks · 82% expected for him +10% DEN GB: End of half
4 Q4 11:52 The Packers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +8% GB GB: Touchdown
5 Q4 8:35 The Packers converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +17% GB GB: Touchdown
6 Q4 3:54 W. Lutz made 52-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for him, 24 of 36 from 45+ before +10% DEN DEN: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 2:00 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yardsJudgment calls +17% DEN DEN: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 1:52 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 203rd & 4th downs · 16% expectedThe Packers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +44% DEN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • David Bakhtiari (GB T), out (IR) · 1.3 pts
  • Jaire Alexander (GB CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • De'Vondre Campbell (GB LB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 46% · Broncos 54%

Final margin
Broncos by 2
Luck in points
3.3 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 1.3
Replay with same day's form
Packers 37% · Broncos 63% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2023 games · Packers · Broncos

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