luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 7 2023 · October 22, 2023

Packers at Broncos, Week 7 2023: who deserved to win?

The Broncos beat the Packers 19–17, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Broncos were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:52 left): the Packers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was picked, worth 24 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Final

Green Bay Packers 17
Denver Broncos 19

October 22, 2023 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Broncos −1.5

Luck index +22 Broncos about even · −22 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 2, Broncos win 8.

  1. 1 GB 27 DEN 14
  2. 2 GB 27 DEN 24
  3. 3 GB 14 DEN 16
  4. 4 GB 21 DEN 24
  5. 5 GB 23 DEN 28
  6. 6 GB 17 DEN 25
  7. 7 GB 17 DEN 28
  8. 8 GB 17 DEN 31
  9. 9 GB 20 DEN 37
  10. 10 GB 13 DEN 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 22% of them, Broncos 78%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+2.0%
Packers by 9–165.4%
Packers by 1–813.9%
Level after regulation5.1%
Broncos by 1–829.9%
Broncos by 9–1623.1%
Broncos by 17+20.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.9 points to the Broncos: the final margin was Broncos by 2, without the luck Packers by 1.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Lutz, 32 yds made · 93% expected
  • W. Lutz, 29 yds made · 95% expected
  • A. Carlson, 43 yds missed · 83% expected
  • W. Lutz, 35 yds made · 91% expected
  • A. Carlson, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • W. Lutz, 52 yds made · 63% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Packers 7 for 56 yards, Broncos 8 for 60 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:14 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% GB +3.4 pts
Q1 2:40 False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DEN +0.4 pts
Q1 2:31 Defensive Holding on the Packers (Kenny Clark), 5 yards +2% DEN +0.8 pts
Q2 13:14 Defensive Offside on the Broncos (Baron Browning), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% GB +0.3 pts
Q2 10:14 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Broncos (Baron Browning), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% GB +0.5 pts
Q2 8:27 Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Keisean Nixon), 21 yards +7% DEN +2.4 pts
Q2 7:34 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% GB +1.6 pts
Q2 1:15 False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DEN +0.5 pts
Q3 7:48 Defensive Holding on the Packers, 5 yards +2% DEN +1.2 pts
Q3 7:41 False Start on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% GB +0.9 pts
Q3 4:37 Defensive Holding on the Broncos (Patrick Surtain II), 5 yards +1% GB +1.5 pts
Q4 14:10 Disqualification on the Broncos (Kareem Jackson), 15 yards +7% GB +1.8 pts
Q4 9:17 False Start on the Packers (Josiah Deguara), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DEN +0.9 pts
Q4 2:00 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards +17% DEN +1.0 pts
Q4 0:06 Delay of Game on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% GB 0.0 pts

Packers penalties, every game · Broncos penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

As low as 49% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:14 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% GB GB: Punt
2 Q2 0:46 A. Carlson missed a 43-yard field goalKicks · 83% expected for him +10% DEN GB: End of half
3 Q4 14:10 Disqualification on the Broncos (Kareem Jackson), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 4318 snaps before, position avg 1 per 462 +7% GB GB: Touchdown
4 Q4 8:35 The Packers converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +12% GB GB: Touchdown
5 Q4 3:54 W. Lutz made a 52-yard field goalKicks · 63% expected for him, 24 of 36 from 45+ before +10% DEN DEN: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 2:00 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yardsJudgment calls +17% DEN DEN: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 1:52 The Packers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 49% of interception-worthy throws +24% DEN –
8 Q4 0:06 The Broncos were stopped on 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedDelay of Game on the Broncos, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +8% DEN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • David Bakhtiari (GB T), out (IR) · 1.3 pts
  • Jaire Alexander (GB CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • De'Vondre Campbell (GB LB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 54% · Broncos 46%

Final margin
Broncos by 2
Luck in points
3.9 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 1.9
Replay with same day's form
Packers 22% · Broncos 78% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2023 games · Packers · Broncos

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