luckadjusted

Week 7 2023 · October 22, 2023

Falcons at Buccaneers, Week 7 2023: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Buccaneers 16–13, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Falcons win 9 of 10. The Buccaneers had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 3.1 points to the Buccaneers.

An off day for the Buccaneers: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Falcons they would win 56% of the time; with this day’s form, 12%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:25 left): the Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 11, worth 21 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 16
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

October 22, 2023 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −3

Luck index +12 Falcons about even · −12 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 9, Buccaneers win 1.

  1. 1 ATL 45 TB 14
  2. 2 ATL 33 TB 9
  3. 3 ATL 31 TB 12
  4. 4 ATL 26 TB 10
  5. 5 ATL 20 TB 7
  6. 6 ATL 30 TB 20
  7. 7 ATL 17 TB 10
  8. 8 ATL 24 TB 19
  9. 9 ATL 34 TB 31
  10. 10 ATL 33 TB 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Buccaneers

Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Falcons they would win 56% of the time; with this day’s form, 12%.

43 points apart for the Buccaneers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Falcons offenseEPA per play gained +0.19 +0.07 better by 0.12
Falcons defenseEPA per play allowed +0.02 +0.10 better by 0.08
Buccaneers offenseEPA per play gained +0.02 +0.04 worse by 0.02
Buccaneers defenseEPA per play allowed +0.19 +0.09 worse by 0.10

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 88% of them, Buccaneers 12%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+44.1%
Falcons by 9–1623.6%
Falcons by 1–819.3%
Level after regulation1.3%
Buccaneers by 1–88.2%
Buccaneers by 9–162.8%
Buccaneers by 17+0.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Falcons by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Falcons by 6.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Y. Koo, 24 yds made · 100% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • Y. Koo, 41 yds made · 88% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 36 yds made · 92% expected
  • Y. Koo, 51 yds made · 76% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 63%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 0:25 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedThe Falcons fumbled and the Buccaneers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +21% TB ATL: Punt
2 Q3 8:42 The Falcons converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +10% ATL ATL: Turnover
3 Q4 4:35 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +18% TB TB: Turnover
4 Q4 3:46 The Buccaneers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +14% ATL TB: Field goal
5 Q4 2:07 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +19% TB TB: Field goal
6 Q4 1:09 Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons, 15 yardsJudgment calls +12% TB TB: Field goal
7 Q4 0:56 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +20% ATL TB: Field goal
8 Q4 0:04 Y. Koo made 51-yard field goalKicks · 76% expected for him, 40 of 48 from 45+ before +19% ATL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Russell Gage (TB WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Brandon Walton (TB G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Matt Hennessy (ATL C), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Troy Andersen (ATL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Adetokunbo Ogundeji (ATL LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 82% · Buccaneers 18%

Final margin
Falcons by 3
Luck in points
3.2 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 6.2
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 88% · Buccaneers 12% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2023 games · Falcons · Buccaneers

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