Week 7 2023 · October 22, 2023
Raiders at Bears, Week 7 2023: who deserved to win?
The Bears beat the Raiders 30–12, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Bears win 9 of 10. The Raiders had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Raiders.
An off day for the Raiders: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Bears they would win 46% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Raiders were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 10:12 left): D. Carlson missed a 41-yard field goal, worth 10 points of win probability to the Bears.
Final
 Las Vegas Raiders | 12 |
|---|---|
 Chicago Bears | 30 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +13 Bears about even · −13 Raiders
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Raiders win 1, Bears win 9.
- 1 LV 19 CHI 14
- 2 LV 7 CHI 9
- 3 LV 3 CHI 7
- 4 LV 14 CHI 21
- 5 LV 9 CHI 19
- 6 LV 13 CHI 24
- 7 LV 9 CHI 23
- 8 LV 7 CHI 24
- 9 LV 10 CHI 30
- 10 LV 3 CHI 31
Your call
Did the Bears earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Raiders
Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Bears they would win 46% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
33 points apart for the Raiders: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders offenseEPA per play gained | −0.08 | +0.10 | worse by 0.18 |
| Raiders defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.26 | +0.10 | worse by 0.16 |
| Bears offenseEPA per play gained | +0.26 | +0.08 | better by 0.18 |
| Bears defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.08 | +0.18 | better by 0.27 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Raiders win 13% of them, Bears 87%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 18.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Raiders by 17+ | 0.4% |
| Raiders by 9–16 | 3.4% |
| Raiders by 1–8 | 8.8% |
| Level after regulation | 0.9% |
| Bears by 1–8 | 27.1% |
| Bears by 9–16 | 25.8% |
| Bears by 17+ | 33.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- D. Carlson, 41 yds missed · 87% expected
- D. Carlson, 40 yds made · 88% expected
- D. Carlson, 25 yds made · 98% expected
- C. Santos, 54 yds made · 64% expected
- Extra point missed · 94% expected
Penalties: Raiders 2 for 15 yards, Bears 9 for 110 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 3:00 | Illegal Contact on the Bears (Jaylon Johnson), 5 yards | +4% LV +1.6 pts |
| Q2 13:01 | Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% LV +2.4 pts |
| Q2 3:10 | False Start on the Raiders (Jakob Johnson), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% CHI +0.5 pts |
| Q2 2:56 | Offensive Holding on the Raiders (Jakob Johnson), 10 yards | +3% CHI +0.8 pts |
| Q2 2:35 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Tyrique Stevenson), 14 yards | +5% LV +1.6 pts |
| Q2 0:59 | Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% LV +2.1 pts |
| Q3 12:20 | False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LV +0.9 pts |
| Q3 0:39 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Jaylon Johnson), 46 yards | +2% LV +4.9 pts |
| Q4 12:14 | False Start on the Bears (Cole Kmet), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LV +0.8 pts |
| Q4 6:57 | Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards | 0% LV +0.9 pts |
| Q4 6:32 | False Start on the Bears (Cole Kmet), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LV +0.3 pts |
Raiders penalties, every game · Bears penalties, every game · All teams, 2023
When it happened
Bears’ chance of winning
As low as 39% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:43 | D. Foreman dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 8 catchable balls before this | +6% LV | CHI: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 10:16 | The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +5% CHI | LV: Missed field goal |
| 3 | Q1 10:12 | D. Carlson missed a 41-yard field goalKicks · 87% expected for him | +10% CHI | LV: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 7:04 | The Bears converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +9% CHI | CHI: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 13:01 | Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +6% LV | LV: Turnover |
| 6 | Q2 10:24 | The Raiders were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws | +6% CHI | LV: Field goal |
| 7 | Q2 2:35 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Tyrique Stevenson), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 381 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 | +5% LV | LV: Field goal |
| 8 | Q2 0:59 | Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +5% LV | LV: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Braxton Jones (CHI T), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Nate Davis (CHI G), out · 0.4 pts
- Terell Smith (CHI CB), out · 0.3 pts
- Khalil Herbert (CHI RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
- Jimmy Garoppolo (LV QB), out, replaced by b.hoyer · 4.7 pts
- Nate Hobbs (LV CB), out · 0.6 pts
- Jakorian Bennett (LV CB), out · 0.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Raiders 0% · Bears 100%
- Final margin
- Bears by 18
- Luck in points
- 1.1 for the Raiders
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bears by 19.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Raiders 13% · Bears 87% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2023 games · 
Raiders · 
Bears
More from Week 7 2023
- Jaguars at Saints JAX 31–24 · replay 87% for the winner
- Falcons at Buccaneers ATL 16–13 · replay 90% for the winner
- Bills at Patriots NE 29–25 · replay 18% for the winner
- Browns at Colts CLE 39–38 · replay 10% for the winner
- Lions at Ravens BAL 38–6 · replay 98% for the winner
- Commanders at Giants NYG 14–7 · replay 48% for the winner
- Cardinals at Seahawks SEA 20–10 · replay 88% for the winner
- Steelers at Rams PIT 24–17 · replay 21% for the winner
- Packers at Broncos DEN 19–17 · replay 78% for the winner
- Chargers at Chiefs KC 31–17 · replay 90% for the winner
- Dolphins at Eagles PHI 31–17 · replay 47% for the winner
- 49ers at Vikings MIN 22–17 · replay 63% for the winner