luckadjusted

Week 7 2023 · October 22, 2023

Raiders at Bears, Week 7 2023: who deserved to win?

The Bears beat the Raiders 30–12 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Raiders had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 12.9 points to the Raiders.

Before kickoff the Raiders were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 10:12 left): D. Carlson missed 41-yard field goal, worth 10 points of win probability to the Bears.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 12
Chicago Bears 30

October 22, 2023 · Soldier Field · Closing line: Raiders −2.5

Luck index +24 Bears about even · −24 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 2, Bears win 8.

  1. 1 LV 17 CHI 6
  2. 2 LV 9 CHI 6
  3. 3 LV 26 CHI 28
  4. 4 LV 6 CHI 9
  5. 5 LV 17 CHI 23
  6. 6 LV 13 CHI 20
  7. 7 LV 14 CHI 24
  8. 8 LV 10 CHI 24
  9. 9 LV 6 CHI 24
  10. 10 LV 7 CHI 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 24% of them, Bears 76%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+1.7%
Raiders by 9–166.0%
Raiders by 1–814.6%
Level after regulation4.5%
Bears by 1–829.5%
Bears by 9–1623.8%
Bears by 17+19.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bears by 18. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bears by 23.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 41 yds missed · 86% expected
  • D. Carlson, 40 yds made · 87% expected
  • D. Carlson, 25 yds made · 99% expected
  • C. Santos, 54 yds made · 63% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bears’ chance of winning

As low as 39% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bears were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:43 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedD. Foreman dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 8 catchable balls before this +8% LV CHI: Punt
2 Q1 10:16 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +5% CHI LV: Missed field goal
3 Q1 10:12 D. Carlson missed 41-yard field goalKicks · 86% expected for him +10% CHI LV: Punt
4 Q1 7:04 The Bears converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +9% CHI CHI: Touchdown
5 Q2 13:01 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% LV LV: Turnover
6 Q2 10:24 The Raiders were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +6% CHI LV: Field goal
7 Q2 2:35 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Tyrique Stevenson), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 381 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +5% LV LV: Field goal
8 Q2 0:59 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% LV LV: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Braxton Jones (CHI T), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Nate Davis (CHI G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Terell Smith (CHI CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Khalil Herbert (CHI RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Jimmy Garoppolo (LV QB), out, replaced by b.hoyer · 4.7 pts
  • Nate Hobbs (LV CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Jakorian Bennett (LV CB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 0% · Bears 100%

Final margin
Bears by 18
Luck in points
5.7 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Bears by 23.7
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 24% · Bears 76% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2023 games · Raiders · Bears

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