Week 7 2023 · October 23, 2023
49ers at Vikings, Week 7 2023: who deserved to win?
The Vikings beat the 49ers 22–17, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10. The 49ers had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 15 points of win probability to the 49ers.
An off day for the 49ers: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Vikings they would win 67% of the time; with this day’s form, 37%. The numbers
Before kickoff the 49ers were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:34 left): the 49ers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was picked, worth 20 points of win probability to the Vikings.
Final
 San Francisco 49ers | 17 |
|---|---|
 Minnesota Vikings | 22 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +37 Vikings lucky · −37 49ers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. 49ers win 4, Vikings win 6.
- 1 SF 35 MIN 17
- 2 SF 27 MIN 17
- 3 SF 35 MIN 30
- 4 SF 12 MIN 10
- 5 SF 14 MIN 16
- 6 SF 17 MIN 21
- 7 SF 20 MIN 28
- 8 SF 31 MIN 42
- 9 SF 17 MIN 33
- 10 SF 19 MIN 42
Your call
Did the Vikings earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the 49ers
Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Vikings they would win 67% of the time; with this day’s form, 37%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
30 points apart for the 49ers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.34 | +0.18 | better by 0.16 |
| 49ers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.25 | +0.04 | worse by 0.21 |
| Vikings offenseEPA per play gained | +0.25 | +0.09 | better by 0.16 |
| Vikings defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.34 | +0.10 | worse by 0.24 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
49ers win 37% of them, Vikings 63%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 5.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| 49ers by 17+ | 5.0% |
| 49ers by 9–16 | 11.2% |
| 49ers by 1–8 | 20.2% |
| Level after regulation | 3.7% |
| Vikings by 1–8 | 28.3% |
| Vikings by 9–16 | 17.3% |
| Vikings by 17+ | 14.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Moody, 40 yds missed · 89% expected
- G. Joseph, 21 yds made · 99% expected
- G. Joseph, 20 yds made · 99% expected
- G. Joseph, 54 yds made · 66% expected
- J. Moody, 55 yds made · 67% expected
- G. Joseph, 50 yds missed · 70% expected
- Extra point missed · 96% expected
Penalties: 49ers 5 for 37 yards, Vikings 5 for 35 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:26 | Encroachment on the 49ers (Javon Kinlaw), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MIN +0.6 pts |
| Q1 6:21 | Delay of Game on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SF +0.8 pts |
| Q1 2:49 | False Start on the 49ers (George Kittle), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MIN +0.8 pts |
| Q2 10:51 | Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Josh Oliver), 10 yards | +4% SF +1.7 pts |
| Q2 10:29 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (K.J. Osborn), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +9% SF +3.3 pts |
| Q2 6:04 | Delay of Game on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MIN +1.1 pts |
| Q3 8:42 | Defensive Pass Interference on the 49ers (Deommodore Lenoir), 17 yards | +2% MIN +1.7 pts |
| Q3 8:01 | False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SF +1.0 pts |
| Q3 2:08 | False Start on the Vikings (Johnny Mundt), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SF +0.7 pts |
| Q4 4:47 | Illegal Contact on the 49ers, 5 yards | +4% MIN +1.3 pts |
49ers penalties, every game · Vikings penalties, every game · All teams, 2023
When it happened
Vikings’ chance of winning
As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:03 | The 49ers fumbled and the Vikings recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +8% MIN | SF: Missed field goal |
| 2 | Q1 10:05 | The Vikings converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +7% MIN | MIN: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 14:57 | J. Moody missed a 40-yard field goalKicks · 89% expected for him | +6% MIN | SF: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 10:29 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (K.J. Osborn), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 5 flags in 2184 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 | +9% SF | SF: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 0:24 | G. Joseph made a 54-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him, 17 of 29 from 45+ before | +9% MIN | MIN: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 13:26 | J. Moody made a 55-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him, 1 of 2 from 45+ before | +7% SF | SF: Turnover |
| 7 | Q4 1:16 | G. Joseph missed a 50-yard field goalKicks · 70% expected for him, 18 of 30 from 45+ before | +18% SF | MIN: End of game |
| 8 | Q4 0:34 | The 49ers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 50% of interception-worthy throws | +20% MIN | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Justin Jefferson (MIN WR), out (IR) · 1.8 pts
- Ezra Cleveland (MIN G), out · 0.4 pts
- Chris Reed (MIN G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Deebo Samuel (SF WR), out · 1.2 pts
- Trent Williams (SF T), out · 1.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
49ers 48% · Vikings 52%
- Final margin
- Vikings by 5
- Luck in points
- 4.6 for the Vikings
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Vikings by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- 49ers 37% · Vikings 63% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2023 games · 
49ers · 
Vikings
More from Week 7 2023
- Jaguars at Saints JAX 31–24 · replay 87% for the winner
- Falcons at Buccaneers ATL 16–13 · replay 90% for the winner
- Bills at Patriots NE 29–25 · replay 18% for the winner
- Browns at Colts CLE 39–38 · replay 10% for the winner
- Lions at Ravens BAL 38–6 · replay 98% for the winner
- Raiders at Bears CHI 30–12 · replay 87% for the winner
- Commanders at Giants NYG 14–7 · replay 48% for the winner
- Cardinals at Seahawks SEA 20–10 · replay 88% for the winner
- Steelers at Rams PIT 24–17 · replay 21% for the winner
- Packers at Broncos DEN 19–17 · replay 78% for the winner
- Chargers at Chiefs KC 31–17 · replay 90% for the winner
- Dolphins at Eagles PHI 31–17 · replay 47% for the winner