luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2023 season · final

San Francisco 49ers, 2023: game by game

The 49ers went 12–5 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 14.0 wins. Luck cost them 2.0: the 4th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 1–3.

Playoffs: 2–1, replay wins 2.0.

Every game

How often the 49ers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Steelers W 30–7 71% +29
Week 2 @ Rams W 30–23 81% +19
Week 3 vs Giants W 30–12 91% +9
Week 4 vs Cardinals W 35–16 97% +3
Week 5 vs Cowboys W 42–10 100% 0
Week 6 @ Browns L 17–19 83% −83
Week 7 @ Vikings L 17–22 37% −37
Week 8 vs Bengals L 17–31 87% −87
Week 10 @ Jaguars W 34–3 98% +2
Week 11 vs Buccaneers W 27–14 99% +1
Week 12 @ Seahawks W 31–13 98% +2
Week 13 @ Eagles W 42–19 97% +3
Week 14 vs Seahawks W 28–16 98% +2
Week 15 @ Cardinals W 45–29 99% +1
Week 16 vs Ravens L 19–33 11% −11
Week 17 @ Commanders W 27–10 99% +1
Week 18 vs Rams L 20–21 56% −56
Divisional round vs Packers W 24–21 69% +31
NFC Championship vs Lions W 34–31 45% +55
Super Bowl vs Chiefs L 22–25 84% −84

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the 49ers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
Judgment calls+0.07−3.8
Injuries+0.03+3.2
Drops−0.04+11.6
Rest−0.08−3.7
3rd & 4th downs−0.12+0.4
Fumble bounces−0.17−2.0
Kicks−0.81−10.8