2023 season · final
San Francisco 49ers, 2023: game by game
The 49ers went 12–5 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 13.7 wins. Luck cost them 1.7: the 7th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 1–3.
Playoffs: 2–1, replay wins 2.2.
Every game
How often the 49ers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Steelers | W 30–7 | 70% | +30 |
| Week 2 | @ Rams | W 30–23 | 66% | +34 |
| Week 3 | vs Giants | W 30–12 | 91% | +9 |
| Week 4 | vs Cardinals | W 35–16 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 5 | vs Cowboys | W 42–10 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 6 | @ Browns | L 17–19 | 82% | −82 |
| Week 7 | @ Vikings | L 17–22 | 34% | −34 |
| Week 8 | vs Bengals | L 17–31 | 86% | −86 |
| Week 10 | @ Jaguars | W 34–3 | 95% | +5 |
| Week 11 | vs Buccaneers | W 27–14 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 12 | @ Seahawks | W 31–13 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 13 | @ Eagles | W 42–19 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 14 | vs Seahawks | W 28–16 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 15 | @ Cardinals | W 45–29 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 16 | vs Ravens | L 19–33 | 19% | −19 |
| Week 17 | @ Commanders | W 27–10 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 18 | vs Rams | L 20–21 | 42% | −42 |
| Divisional round | vs Packers | W 24–21 | 71% | +29 |
| NFC Championship | vs Lions | W 34–31 | 60% | +40 |
| Super Bowl | @ Chiefs | L 22–25 | 84% | −84 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the 49ers’ favor.
| Kind | Points | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Drops | +11.3 | +0.67 |
| Injuries | +4.5 | +0.26 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +3.1 | +0.18 |
| Fumble bounces | −1.6 | −0.09 |
| Rest | −3.7 | −0.22 |
| Judgment calls | −6.4 | −0.38 |
| Kicks | −10.1 | −0.59 |