NFC Championship 2023 · January 28, 2024
Lions at 49ers, NFC Championship 2023: who deserved to win?
The 49ers beat the Lions 34–31, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the 49ers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: drops alone were worth 23 points of win probability to the 49ers.
Before kickoff the 49ers were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 7:38 left): the Lions were stopped on 4th & 3, worth 16 points of win probability to the 49ers.
Final
 Detroit Lions | 31 |
|---|---|
 San Francisco 49ers | 34 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +55 49ers lucky · −55 Lions
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Lions win 5, 49ers win 5.
- 1 DET 29 SF 7
- 2 DET 34 SF 20
- 3 DET 33 SF 23
- 4 DET 37 SF 31
- 5 DET 20 SF 17
- 6 DET 36 SF 38
- 7 DET 13 SF 20
- 8 DET 17 SF 27
- 9 DET 27 SF 41
- 10 DET 24 SF 45
Your call
Did the 49ers earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Lions win 55% of them, 49ers 45%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Lions by 17+ | 12.9% |
| Lions by 9–16 | 15.4% |
| Lions by 1–8 | 21.6% |
| Level after regulation | 5.4% |
| 49ers by 1–8 | 21.6% |
| 49ers by 9–16 | 13.4% |
| 49ers by 17+ | 9.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Moody, 48 yds missed · 74% expected
- M. Badgley, 21 yds made · 97% expected
- J. Moody, 43 yds made · 84% expected
- J. Moody, 33 yds made · 94% expected
Penalties: Lions 2 for 15 yards, 49ers 3 for 20 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 8:47 | Illegal Blindside Block on the Lions (C.J. Gardner-Johnson), 15 yards | +2% SF +0.7 pts |
| Q2 0:07 | Offensive Holding on the 49ers (George Odum), 10 yards | +2% DET +0.9 pts |
| Q3 9:53 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the 49ers (Javon Hargrave), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DET +0.3 pts |
| Q4 0:56 | Illegal Touch Kick on the Lions (Craig Reynolds), 0 yards | 0% SF 0.0 pts |
| Q4 0:01 | Delay of Game on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DET +0.2 pts |
Lions penalties, every game · 49ers penalties, every game · All teams, 2023
When it happened
49ers’ chance of winning
As low as 7% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:58 | J. Moody missed a 48-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him, 4 of 6 from 45+ before | +9% DET | SF: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 7:03 | J. Reynolds dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 99 catchable balls before this | +6% SF | DET: Turnover |
| 3 | Q3 5:15 | The Lions fumbled and the 49ers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +9% SF | DET: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 2:23 | S. LaPorta dropped a catchable passDrops · 5 drops on 114 catchable balls before this | +7% SF | DET: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 2:17 | J. Reynolds dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 100 catchable balls before this | +7% SF | DET: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 10:41 | The 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 193rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +6% DET | SF: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 9:56 | J. Moody made a 33-yard field goalKicks · 94% expected for him | +6% SF | SF: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 7:38 | The Lions were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +16% SF | DET: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Jonah Jackson (DET G), out · 0.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Lions 83% · 49ers 17%
- Final margin
- 49ers by 3
- Luck in points
- 8.2 for the 49ers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Lions by 5.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Lions 55% · 49ers 45% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Conference championships 2023 games · 
Lions · 
49ers
More from Conference championships 2023
- Chiefs at Ravens KC 17–10 · replay 71% for the winner