Chiefs 17 
Ravens 10 Replays agree · Chiefs win 71% of replays Off day for the Ravens 62% to win a fresh game, 29% with this day’s form: far below what the matchup promised. 2023 NFL season · January 28, 2024
Conference championships 2023: who deserved to win
No winner of Conference championships was behind in the replays. The closest call: the 49ers won 34–31 and take 45% of replays.
The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.
Chiefs 17 Ravens 10 Replays agree · Chiefs win 71% of replays Off day for the Ravens 62% to win a fresh game, 29% with this day’s form: far below what the matchup promised. 
Lions 31 
49ers 34 Coin flip · 49ers win 45% of replays Conference championships 2023 upsets
Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 1 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.
| Winner | Game | Before kickoff | Replay with same day’s form | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | 17–10 @ Ravens | 37% | 71% | Deserved |
Luck ranking, conference championships
Every team’s luck index this round: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 49ers | W 34–31 vs Lions | 45% | +55 |
| 2 | Chiefs | W 17–10 @ Ravens | 71% | +29 |
| 3 | Ravens | L 10–17 vs Chiefs | 29% | −29 |
| 4 | Lions | L 31–34 @ 49ers | 55% | −55 |