Texans 10 
Ravens 34 Replays agree · Ravens win 87% of replays 2023 NFL season · January 20, 2024–January 21
Divisional round 2023: who deserved to win
No winner of Divisional round was behind in the replays. The closest call: the 49ers won 24–21 and take 69% of replays.
The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.
Texans 10 Ravens 34 Replays agree · Ravens win 87% of replays 
Packers 21 
49ers 24 Replays agree · 49ers win 69% of replays 
Buccaneers 23 
Lions 31 Replays agree · Lions win 73% of replays 
Chiefs 27 
Bills 24 Replays agree · Chiefs win 79% of replays Off day for the Bills 56% to win a fresh game, 21% with this day’s form: defense far below its usual level. Divisional round 2023 upsets
Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 1 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.
| Winner | Game | Before kickoff | Replay with same day’s form | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | 27–24 @ Bills | 43% | 79% | Deserved |
Luck ranking, divisional round
Every team’s luck index this round: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 49ers | W 24–21 vs Packers | 69% | +31 |
| 2 | Lions | W 31–23 vs Buccaneers | 73% | +27 |
| 3 | Chiefs | W 27–24 @ Bills | 79% | +21 |
| 4 | Ravens | W 34–10 vs Texans | 87% | +13 |
| 5 | Texans | L 10–34 @ Ravens | 13% | −13 |
| 6 | Bills | L 24–27 vs Chiefs | 21% | −21 |
| 7 | Buccaneers | L 23–31 @ Lions | 27% | −27 |
| 8 | Packers | L 21–24 @ 49ers | 31% | −31 |