Texans 10 
Ravens 34 Deserved · Ravens win 86% of replays 2023 NFL season · January 20, 2024–January 21
Divisional round 2023: who deserved to win
Every winner of Divisional round earned it. The closest call: the Chiefs won 27–24 and take 63% of replays.
The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.
Texans 10 Ravens 34 Deserved · Ravens win 86% of replays 
Packers 21 
49ers 24 Deserved · 49ers win 71% of replays 
Buccaneers 23 
Lions 31 Deserved · Lions win 73% of replays 
Chiefs 27 
Bills 24 Deserved · Chiefs win 63% of replays Luck ranking, divisional round
Every team’s luck index this round: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chiefs | W 27–24 @ Bills | 63% | +37 |
| 2 | 49ers | W 24–21 vs Packers | 71% | +29 |
| 3 | Lions | W 31–23 vs Buccaneers | 73% | +27 |
| 4 | Ravens | W 34–10 vs Texans | 86% | +14 |
| 5 | Texans | L 10–34 @ Ravens | 14% | −14 |
| 6 | Buccaneers | L 23–31 @ Lions | 27% | −27 |
| 7 | Packers | L 21–24 @ 49ers | 29% | −29 |
| 8 | Bills | L 24–27 vs Chiefs | 37% | −37 |