Browns 14 
Texans 45 Deserved · Texans win 91% of replays Off day for the Browns 45% to win a fresh game, 9% with this day’s form: defense far below its usual level. 2023 NFL season · January 13, 2024–January 15
Wild Card 2023: who deserved to win
1 of 6 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Lions beat the Rams 24–23 in a game they win 39% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.
The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.
Browns 14 Texans 45 Deserved · Texans win 91% of replays Off day for the Browns 45% to win a fresh game, 9% with this day’s form: defense far below its usual level. 
Dolphins 7 
Chiefs 26 Deserved · Chiefs win 62% of replays 
Packers 48 
Cowboys 32 Deserved · Packers win 66% of replays 
Rams unlucky 23 
Lions lucky 24 Winner outplayed · Lions win 39% of replays 
Steelers 17 
Bills 31 Deserved · Bills win 92% of replays 
Eagles 9 
Buccaneers 32 Deserved · Buccaneers win 82% of replays Luck ranking, wild card
Every team’s luck index this round: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lions | W 24–23 vs Rams | 39% | +61 |
| 2 | Chiefs | W 26–7 vs Dolphins | 62% | +38 |
| 3 | Packers | W 48–32 @ Cowboys | 66% | +34 |
| 4 | Buccaneers | W 32–9 vs Eagles | 82% | +18 |
| 5 | Texans | W 45–14 vs Browns | 91% | +9 |
| 6 | Bills | W 31–17 vs Steelers | 92% | +8 |
| 7 | Steelers | L 17–31 @ Bills | 8% | −8 |
| 8 | Browns | L 14–45 @ Texans | 9% | −9 |
| 9 | Eagles | L 9–32 @ Buccaneers | 18% | −18 |
| 10 | Cowboys | L 32–48 vs Packers | 34% | −34 |
| 11 | Dolphins | L 7–26 @ Chiefs | 38% | −38 |
| 12 | Rams | L 23–24 @ Lions | 61% | −61 |