Browns 14 
Texans 45 Replays agree · Texans win 92% of replays Off day for the Browns 45% to win a fresh game, 8% with this day’s form: defense far below its usual level. 2023 NFL season · January 13, 2024–January 15
Wild Card 2023: who deserved to win
1 of 6 winners was behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Lions beat the Rams 24–23 in a game they win 36% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.
The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.
Browns 14 Texans 45 Replays agree · Texans win 92% of replays Off day for the Browns 45% to win a fresh game, 8% with this day’s form: defense far below its usual level. 
Dolphins 7 
Chiefs 26 Replays agree · Chiefs win 77% of replays 
Packers 48 
Cowboys 32 Replays agree · Packers win 80% of replays Off day for the Cowboys 51% to win a fresh game, 20% with this day’s form: offense and defense both far below their usual level. 
Rams unlucky 23 
Lions lucky 24 Replays favor loser · Lions win 36% of replays 
Steelers 17 
Bills 31 Replays agree · Bills win 93% of replays 
Eagles 9 
Buccaneers 32 Replays agree · Buccaneers win 65% of replays Wild Card 2023 upsets
Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 3 of 3 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.
| Winner | Game | Before kickoff | Replay with same day’s form | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Packers | 48–32 @ Cowboys | 30% | 80% | Deserved |
| Texans | 45–14 vs Browns | 43% | 92% | Deserved |
| Buccaneers | 32–9 vs Eagles | 43% | 65% | Deserved |
Luck ranking, wild card
Every team’s luck index this round: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lions | W 24–23 vs Rams | 36% | +64 |
| 2 | Buccaneers | W 32–9 vs Eagles | 65% | +35 |
| 3 | Chiefs | W 26–7 vs Dolphins | 77% | +23 |
| 4 | Packers | W 48–32 @ Cowboys | 80% | +20 |
| 5 | Texans | W 45–14 vs Browns | 92% | +8 |
| 6 | Bills | W 31–17 vs Steelers | 93% | +7 |
| 7 | Steelers | L 17–31 @ Bills | 7% | −7 |
| 8 | Browns | L 14–45 @ Texans | 8% | −8 |
| 9 | Cowboys | L 32–48 vs Packers | 20% | −20 |
| 10 | Dolphins | L 7–26 @ Chiefs | 23% | −23 |
| 11 | Eagles | L 9–32 @ Buccaneers | 35% | −35 |
| 12 | Rams | L 23–24 @ Lions | 64% | −64 |