luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Wild Card 2023 · January 15, 2024

Steelers at Bills, Wild Card 2023: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Steelers 31–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bills were 77% favorites.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 17
Buffalo Bills 31

January 15, 2024 · New Era Field · Closing line: Bills −10

Luck index +7 Bills about even · −7 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 1, Bills win 9.

  1. 1 PIT 34 BUF 28
  2. 2 PIT 20 BUF 23
  3. 3 PIT 35 BUF 41
  4. 4 PIT 10 BUF 20
  5. 5 PIT 7 BUF 20
  6. 6 PIT 10 BUF 26
  7. 7 PIT 14 BUF 33
  8. 8 PIT 9 BUF 30
  9. 9 PIT 7 BUF 33
  10. 10 PIT 0 BUF 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 7% of them, Bills 93%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+0.2%
Steelers by 9–161.0%
Steelers by 1–84.9%
Level after regulation0.8%
Bills by 1–811.4%
Bills by 9–1623.6%
Bills by 17+58.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.9 points to the Steelers: the final margin was Bills by 14, without the luck Bills by 20.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Bass, 49 yds blocked · 67% expected
  • C. Boswell, 40 yds made · 86% expected
  • T. Bass, 45 yds made · 76% expected
  • T. Bass, 27 yds missed · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Steelers 6 for 50 yards, Bills 2 for 24 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 11:43 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Kaiir Elam), 9 yards +2% PIT +1.5 pts
Q3 13:24 False Start on the Steelers (Darnell Washington), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.7 pts
Q3 12:07 False Start on the Steelers (Darnell Washington), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.7 pts
Q4 10:32 Unnecessary Roughness on the Steelers, 15 yards +5% BUF +1.4 pts
Q4 10:27 Defensive Holding on the Steelers (Myles Jack), 5 yards +1% BUF +0.1 pts
Q4 7:38 Unnecessary Roughness on the Steelers (Myles Jack), 15 yards +2% BUF +1.2 pts
Q4 0:52 Roughing the Passer on the Bills (Ed Oliver), 15 yards 0% PIT +0.8 pts
Q4 0:27 Illegal Substitution on the Steelers (Calvin Austin III), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +1.1 pts

Steelers penalties, every game · Bills penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:37 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +3% BUF PIT: Punt
2 Q1 4:21 The Steelers fumbled and the Bills recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% BUF PIT: Punt
3 Q2 12:49 The Steelers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +3% PIT PIT: Turnover
4 Q2 2:23 T. Bass had a 49-yard field goal blockedKicks · 67% expected for him, 30 of 41 from 45+ before +4% PIT BUF: End of half
5 Q3 12:53 The Steelers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 50% of interception-worthy throws +4% PIT PIT: Field goal
6 Q3 3:42 The Bills converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +4% BUF BUF: Field goal
7 Q3 0:52 The Steelers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +3% PIT PIT: Touchdown
8 Q4 10:32 Unnecessary Roughness on the Steelers, 15 yardsJudgment calls +5% BUF BUF: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Rasul Douglas (BUF CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Taylor Rapp (BUF SS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tyrel Dodson (BUF LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • T.J. Watt (PIT LB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Trenton Thompson (PIT SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Mitchell Trubisky (PIT QB), out, replaced by m.rudolph · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 0% · Bills 100%

Final margin
Bills by 14
Luck in points
6.9 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 20.9
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 7% · Bills 93% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2023 games · Steelers · Bills

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