luckadjusted

Wild Card 2023 · January 15, 2024

Eagles at Buccaneers, Wild Card 2023: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Eagles 32–9, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 8 of 10. The Eagles had the bounces: drops alone were worth 4.6 points to the Eagles.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 5:59 left): the Buccaneers converted 3rd & 7, worth 12 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 32

January 15, 2024 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Eagles −2.5

Luck index +18 Buccaneers about even · −18 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 2, Buccaneers win 8.

  1. 1 PHI 26 TB 13
  2. 2 PHI 27 TB 23
  3. 3 PHI 17 TB 20
  4. 4 PHI 31 TB 35
  5. 5 PHI 10 TB 17
  6. 6 PHI 24 TB 34
  7. 7 PHI 3 TB 16
  8. 8 PHI 6 TB 22
  9. 9 PHI 14 TB 34
  10. 10 PHI 3 TB 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 18% of them, Buccaneers 82%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 23.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+2.1%
Eagles by 9–165.8%
Eagles by 1–89.9%
Level after regulation2.2%
Buccaneers by 1–826.2%
Buccaneers by 9–1622.9%
Buccaneers by 17+31.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Buccaneers by 23. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Buccaneers by 18.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 54 yds made · 68% expected
  • J. Elliott, 47 yds made · 80% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 48 yds made · 78% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:10 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +5% PHI TB: Field goal
2 Q1 6:42 M. Evans dropped a catchable passDrops · 11 drops on 186 catchable balls before this +4% PHI TB: Touchdown
3 Q1 5:59 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +12% TB TB: Touchdown
4 Q2 14:08 C. McLaughlin made 54-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him, 37 of 51 from 45+ before +6% TB TB: Field goal
5 Q2 1:55 R. White dropped a catchable passDrops · 6 drops on 126 catchable balls before this +5% PHI TB: Punt
6 Q2 1:42 The Eagles fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% PHI PHI: End of half
7 Q3 4:35 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +8% PHI TB: Punt
8 Q3 2:28 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Eagles (Jalen Hurts), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 3695 snaps before, position avg 1 per 643 +10% TB PHI: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • A.J. Brown (PHI WR), out · 1.7 pts
  • Reed Blankenship (PHI SS), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 0% · Buccaneers 100%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 23
Luck in points
4.7 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 18.3
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 18% · Buccaneers 82% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2023 games · Eagles · Buccaneers

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