Wild Card 2023 · January 15, 2024
Eagles at Buccaneers, Wild Card 2023: who deserved to win?
The Buccaneers beat the Eagles 32–9, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Eagles had the bounces: drops alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Eagles.
Before kickoff the Eagles were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 2:28 left): the Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 6, worth 10 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.
Final
 Philadelphia Eagles | 9 |
|---|---|
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 32 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +35 Buccaneers lucky · −35 Eagles
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Eagles win 3, Buccaneers win 7.
- 1 PHI 22 TB 6
- 2 PHI 25 TB 17
- 3 PHI 13 TB 10
- 4 PHI 24 TB 26
- 5 PHI 19 TB 23
- 6 PHI 13 TB 20
- 7 PHI 17 TB 27
- 8 PHI 13 TB 26
- 9 PHI 23 TB 40
- 10 PHI 13 TB 38
Your call
Did the Buccaneers earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Eagles win 35% of them, Buccaneers 65%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 23.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Eagles by 17+ | 5.2% |
| Eagles by 9–16 | 9.1% |
| Eagles by 1–8 | 18.9% |
| Level after regulation | 2.6% |
| Buccaneers by 1–8 | 26.9% |
| Buccaneers by 9–16 | 19.4% |
| Buccaneers by 17+ | 18.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. McLaughlin, 28 yds made · 97% expected
- C. McLaughlin, 54 yds made · 69% expected
- J. Elliott, 47 yds made · 80% expected
- C. McLaughlin, 48 yds made · 78% expected
Penalties: Eagles 6 for 54 yards, Buccaneers 5 for 25 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:07 | Face Mask on the Eagles (Zach Cunningham), 15 yards | +4% TB +1.8 pts |
| Q1 7:07 | False Start on the Buccaneers (Trey Palmer), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PHI +0.5 pts |
| Q2 5:35 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Eagles, 5 yards | +1% TB +0.6 pts |
| Q2 3:06 | Defensive Offside on the Buccaneers (Zyon McCollum), 1 yard · pre-snap | 0% TB 0.0 pts |
| Q3 9:21 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Joe Tryon-Shoyinka), 4 yards | +3% PHI +1.1 pts |
| Q3 2:28 | Intentional Grounding on the Eagles (Jalen Hurts), 14 yards | +5% TB +1.2 pts |
| Q4 13:46 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Eagles, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +2% TB +1.2 pts |
| Q4 13:29 | False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TB +0.5 pts |
| Q4 12:06 | Defensive Offside on the Buccaneers (Zyon McCollum), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% PHI +0.2 pts |
| Q4 9:13 | Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Ko Kieft), 10 yards | 0% TB +0.8 pts |
| Q4 4:01 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Dallas Goedert), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% TB +1.7 pts |
Eagles penalties, every game · Buccaneers penalties, every game · All teams, 2023
When it happened
Buccaneers’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:10 | The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +5% PHI | TB: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 5:59 | The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +5% TB | TB: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 14:08 | C. McLaughlin made a 54-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him, 37 of 51 from 45+ before | +6% TB | TB: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 3:06 | The Eagles’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedDefensive Offside on the Buccaneers (Zyon McCollum), 1 yardPre-snap flags · 5 flags in 1539 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 | +4% TB | PHI: End of half |
| 5 | Q2 1:42 | The Eagles fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% PHI | PHI: End of half |
| 6 | Q3 7:59 | The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +4% TB | PHI: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 4:35 | The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected | +5% PHI | TB: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 2:28 | The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 44% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Eagles (Jalen Hurts), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 3695 snaps before, position avg 1 per 643 | +10% TB | PHI: Turnover on downs |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- A.J. Brown (PHI WR), out · 1.7 pts
- Reed Blankenship (PHI SS), out · 0.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Eagles 0% · Buccaneers 100%
- Final margin
- Buccaneers by 23
- Luck in points
- 1.4 for the Buccaneers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Buccaneers by 21.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Eagles 35% · Buccaneers 65% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2023 games · 
Eagles · 
Buccaneers
More from Wild Card 2023
- Browns at Texans HOU 45–14 · replay 92% for the winner
- Dolphins at Chiefs KC 26–7 · replay 77% for the winner
- Packers at Cowboys GB 48–32 · replay 80% for the winner
- Rams at Lions DET 24–23 · replay 36% for the winner
- Steelers at Bills BUF 31–17 · replay 93% for the winner