2023 season · final
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 2023: game by game
The Buccaneers went 9–8 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 7.8 wins. Luck added 1.2: the 9th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–4.
Playoffs: 1–1, replay wins 1.1.
Every game
How often the Buccaneers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Vikings | W 20–17 | 10% | +90 |
| Week 2 | vs Bears | W 27–17 | 95% | +5 |
| Week 3 | vs Eagles | L 11–25 | 5% | −5 |
| Week 4 | @ Saints | W 26–9 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 6 | vs Lions | L 6–20 | 42% | −42 |
| Week 7 | vs Falcons | L 13–16 | 12% | −12 |
| Week 8 | @ Bills | L 18–24 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 9 | @ Texans | L 37–39 | 19% | −19 |
| Week 10 | vs Titans | W 20–6 | 90% | +10 |
| Week 11 | @ 49ers | L 14–27 | 2% | −2 |
| Week 12 | @ Colts | L 20–27 | 36% | −36 |
| Week 13 | vs Panthers | W 21–18 | 91% | +9 |
| Week 14 | @ Falcons | W 29–25 | 15% | +85 |
| Week 15 | @ Packers | W 34–20 | 75% | +25 |
| Week 16 | vs Jaguars | W 30–12 | 81% | +19 |
| Week 17 | vs Saints | L 13–23 | 42% | −42 |
| Week 18 | @ Panthers | W 9–0 | 79% | +21 |
| Wild Card | vs Eagles | W 32–9 | 82% | +18 |
| Divisional round | @ Lions | L 23–31 | 27% | −27 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Buccaneers’ favor.
| Kind | Points | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +23.1 | +1.36 |
| Injuries | +14.8 | +0.87 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +9.6 | +0.56 |
| Fumble bounces | +9.4 | +0.56 |
| Judgment calls | +9.1 | +0.54 |
| Rest | −1.2 | −0.07 |
| Drops | −8.8 | −0.52 |