2023 season · final
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 2023: game by game
The Buccaneers went 9–8 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 7.9 wins. Luck added 1.1: the 9th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–4.
Playoffs: 1–1, replay wins 0.9.
Every game
How often the Buccaneers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Vikings | W 20–17 | 18% | +82 |
| Week 2 | vs Bears | W 27–17 | 95% | +5 |
| Week 3 | vs Eagles | L 11–25 | 6% | −6 |
| Week 4 | @ Saints | W 26–9 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 6 | vs Lions | L 6–20 | 40% | −40 |
| Week 7 | vs Falcons | L 13–16 | 10% | −10 |
| Week 8 | @ Bills | L 18–24 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 9 | @ Texans | L 37–39 | 30% | −30 |
| Week 10 | vs Titans | W 20–6 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 11 | @ 49ers | L 14–27 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 12 | @ Colts | L 20–27 | 40% | −40 |
| Week 13 | vs Panthers | W 21–18 | 91% | +9 |
| Week 14 | @ Falcons | W 29–25 | 23% | +77 |
| Week 15 | @ Packers | W 34–20 | 74% | +26 |
| Week 16 | vs Jaguars | W 30–12 | 81% | +19 |
| Week 17 | vs Saints | L 13–23 | 24% | −24 |
| Week 18 | @ Panthers | W 9–0 | 78% | +22 |
| Wild Card | vs Eagles | W 32–9 | 65% | +35 |
| Divisional round | @ Lions | L 23–31 | 27% | −27 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Buccaneers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Injuries | +0.31 | +11.1 |
| Kicks | +0.29 | +22.6 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.21 | +6.7 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.20 | +12.7 |
| Rest | −0.03 | −1.2 |
| Drops | −0.34 | −9.0 |