luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 3 2023 · September 25, 2023

Eagles at Buccaneers, Week 3 2023: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Buccaneers 25–11, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 9:14 left): the Eagles were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 11 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 25
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11

September 25, 2023 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Eagles −6

Luck index +6 Eagles about even · −6 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 9, Buccaneers win 1.

  1. 1 PHI 42 TB 10
  2. 2 PHI 35 TB 10
  3. 3 PHI 34 TB 13
  4. 4 PHI 30 TB 12
  5. 5 PHI 23 TB 9
  6. 6 PHI 28 TB 16
  7. 7 PHI 28 TB 19
  8. 8 PHI 30 TB 24
  9. 9 PHI 20 TB 17
  10. 10 PHI 10 TB 17

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 94% of them, Buccaneers 6%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+58.4%
Eagles by 9–1620.4%
Eagles by 1–815.6%
Level after regulation0.6%
Buccaneers by 1–83.9%
Buccaneers by 9–160.9%
Buccaneers by 17+0.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.1 points to the Eagles: the final margin was Eagles by 14, without the luck Eagles by 8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 36 yds made · 93% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • J. Elliott, 38 yds made · 91% expected
  • J. Elliott, 26 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Eagles 3 for 20 yards, Buccaneers 4 for 20 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 3:48 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Eagles, 5 yards +1% TB +1.0 pts
Q1 1:27 Defensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Greg Gaines), 5 yards +2% PHI +0.9 pts
Q2 9:32 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Josh Jobe), 10 yards +5% TB +1.6 pts
Q2 4:07 False Start on the Eagles (Dallas Goedert), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TB +0.7 pts
Q2 2:49 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Buccaneers, 5 yards, wiping out the play +4% PHI +1.1 pts
Q2 0:53 Illegal Use of Hands on the Buccaneers (Jamel Dean), 5 yards +1% PHI +0.4 pts
Q3 3:40 Offside on Free Kick on the Buccaneers (Derrek Pitts), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI +0.5 pts

Eagles penalties, every game · Buccaneers penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:14 The Eagles were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected +11% TB PHI: Field goal
2 Q2 10:59 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +7% TB TB: Field goal
3 Q2 9:32 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Josh Jobe), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 392 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +5% TB TB: Field goal
4 Q2 7:37 The Eagles converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +5% PHI PHI: Touchdown
5 Q2 3:41 The Eagles converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +7% PHI PHI: Touchdown
6 Q2 2:32 The Buccaneers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 49% of interception-worthy throws +5% PHI TB: Turnover
7 Q2 0:39 The Buccaneers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% TB TB: Turnover
8 Q2 0:09 The Eagles got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 50% of interception-worthy throws +5% PHI PHI: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Carlton Davis (TB CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Russell Gage (TB WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Quez Watkins (PHI WR), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 97% · Buccaneers 3%

Final margin
Eagles by 14
Luck in points
6.1 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 7.9
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 94% · Buccaneers 6% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2023 games · Eagles · Buccaneers

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