luckadjusted

Week 3 2023 · September 25, 2023

Eagles at Buccaneers, Week 3 2023: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Buccaneers 25–11, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 3:41 left): the Eagles converted 3rd & 10, worth 13 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 25
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11

September 25, 2023 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Eagles −6

Luck index +5 Eagles about even · −5 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 9, Buccaneers win 1.

  1. 1 PHI 38 TB 7
  2. 2 PHI 32 TB 6
  3. 3 PHI 24 TB 3
  4. 4 PHI 27 TB 10
  5. 5 PHI 34 TB 20
  6. 6 PHI 17 TB 6
  7. 7 PHI 26 TB 17
  8. 8 PHI 23 TB 17
  9. 9 PHI 16 TB 14
  10. 10 PHI 17 TB 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 95% of them, Buccaneers 5%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+56.1%
Eagles by 9–1622.5%
Eagles by 1–814.6%
Level after regulation1.7%
Buccaneers by 1–83.8%
Buccaneers by 9–161.1%
Buccaneers by 17+0.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Eagles by 14. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Eagles by 7.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 36 yds made · 92% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • J. Elliott, 38 yds made · 90% expected
  • J. Elliott, 26 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:14 The Eagles were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +11% TB PHI: Field goal
2 Q2 10:59 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +9% TB TB: Field goal
3 Q2 10:17 C. Otton dropped a catchable passDrops · 5 drops on 62 catchable balls before this +6% PHI TB: Field goal
4 Q2 9:32 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Josh Jobe), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 392 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +5% TB TB: Field goal
5 Q2 7:37 The Eagles converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +5% PHI PHI: Touchdown
6 Q2 3:41 The Eagles converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +13% PHI PHI: Touchdown
7 Q2 2:32 The Buccaneers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% PHI TB: Turnover
8 Q2 0:39 The Buccaneers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% TB TB: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Carlton Davis (TB CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Russell Gage (TB WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Quez Watkins (PHI WR), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 96% · Buccaneers 4%

Final margin
Eagles by 14
Luck in points
6.6 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 7.4
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 95% · Buccaneers 5% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2023 games · Eagles · Buccaneers

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