luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 3 2023 · September 24, 2023

Falcons at Lions, Week 3 2023: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Falcons 20–6, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Lions win 10 of 10.

An off day for the Falcons: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Lions they would win 34% of the time; with this day’s form, 2%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Lions were 59% favorites.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 6
Detroit Lions 20

September 24, 2023 · Ford Field · Closing line: Lions −3

Luck index +2 Lions about even · −2 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 0, Lions win 10.

  1. 1 ATL 3 DET 6
  2. 2 ATL 17 DET 23
  3. 3 ATL 10 DET 20
  4. 4 ATL 9 DET 22
  5. 5 ATL 17 DET 32
  6. 6 ATL 6 DET 24
  7. 7 ATL 15 DET 36
  8. 8 ATL 6 DET 30
  9. 9 ATL 0 DET 29
  10. 10 ATL 0 DET 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Falcons

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Lions they would win 34% of the time; with this day’s form, 2%.

32 points apart for the Falcons: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Falcons offenseEPA per play gained −0.39 +0.09 worse by 0.48
Falcons defenseEPA per play allowed +0.02 +0.12 better by 0.10
Lions offenseEPA per play gained +0.02 +0.13 worse by 0.11
Lions defenseEPA per play allowed −0.39 +0.15 better by 0.53

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 2% of them, Lions 98%. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+0.0%
Falcons by 9–160.4%
Falcons by 1–81.6%
Level after regulation0.3%
Lions by 1–84.8%
Lions by 9–1614.4%
Lions by 17+78.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.9 points to the Falcons: the final margin was Lions by 14, without the luck Lions by 17.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Patterson, 37 yds made · 93% expected
  • Y. Koo, 48 yds made · 83% expected
  • R. Patterson, 24 yds made · 99% expected
  • Y. Koo, 47 yds missed · 85% expected
  • Y. Koo, 24 yds made · 100% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Falcons 4 for 24 yards, Lions 10 for 119 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:05 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards +3% DET +0.9 pts
Q1 7:48 Chop Block on the Lions, 15 yards +4% ATL +1.6 pts
Q2 10:28 Defensive Holding on the Falcons (Grady Jarrett), 5 yards +2% DET +0.8 pts
Q2 3:23 Illegal Contact on the Falcons (Jessie Bates III), 4 yards +2% DET +2.0 pts
Q2 2:38 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards +1% ATL +1.5 pts
Q2 1:04 Offensive Holding on the Lions (Will Harris), 10 yards +2% ATL +0.8 pts
Q3 12:17 Horse Collar Tackle on the Lions (Brian Branch), 15 yards +3% ATL +1.8 pts
Q3 6:35 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% ATL +1.6 pts
Q3 4:41 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Jerry Jacobs), 8 yards +2% ATL +1.0 pts
Q3 3:39 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards +2% ATL +1.4 pts
Q3 1:01 Face Mask on the Lions (Will Harris), 15 yards +3% ATL +1.2 pts
Q4 8:23 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Jerry Jacobs), 11 yards +1% ATL +1.5 pts
Q4 5:15 Delay of Game on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DET +0.7 pts
Q4 2:17 Unnecessary Roughness on the Lions (Brian Branch), 15 yards 0% ATL +1.8 pts

Falcons penalties, every game · Lions penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:07 The Falcons converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +5% ATL ATL: Punt
2 Q1 7:48 Chop Block on the Lions, 15 yardsJudgment calls +4% ATL ATL: Field goal
3 Q2 11:41 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +4% DET ATL: Field goal
4 Q2 11:37 Y. Koo made a 48-yard field goalKicks · 83% expected for him, 38 of 45 from 45+ before +5% ATL ATL: Punt
5 Q2 10:45 The Lions converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +8% DET DET: Touchdown
6 Q2 10:05 The Falcons got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 50% of interception-worthy throws +4% ATL ATL: Punt
7 Q3 9:12 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +4% DET ATL: Missed field goal
8 Q3 8:30 Y. Koo missed a 47-yard field goalKicks · 85% expected for him, 39 of 46 from 45+ before +6% DET ATL: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Taylor Decker (DET T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Kerby Joseph (DET SS), out · 0.9 pts
  • Kerby Joseph (DET FS), out · 0.8 pts
  • David Montgomery (DET RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Halapoulivaati Vaitai (DET G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Matt Hennessy (ATL C), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Adetokunbo Ogundeji (ATL LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 0% · Lions 100%

Final margin
Lions by 14
Luck in points
3.9 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 17.9
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 2% · Lions 98% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2023 games · Falcons · Lions

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