luckadjusted

Week 3 2023 · September 24, 2023

Cowboys at Cardinals, Week 3 2023: who deserved to win?

The Cardinals beat the Cowboys 28–16 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10.

An off day for the Cowboys: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Cardinals they would win 74% of the time; with this day’s form, 36%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 80% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 1:52 left): B. Aubrey made 49-yard field goal, worth 9 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 16
Arizona Cardinals 28

September 24, 2023 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −11.5

Luck index +36 Cardinals lucky · −36 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 4, Cardinals win 6.

  1. 1 DAL 35 ARI 16
  2. 2 DAL 27 ARI 17
  3. 3 DAL 25 ARI 20
  4. 4 DAL 20 ARI 17
  5. 5 DAL 17 ARI 20
  6. 6 DAL 26 ARI 31
  7. 7 DAL 3 ARI 10
  8. 8 DAL 17 ARI 28
  9. 9 DAL 12 ARI 27
  10. 10 DAL 7 ARI 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Cowboys

Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Cardinals they would win 74% of the time; with this day’s form, 36%.

38 points apart for the Cowboys: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Cowboys offenseEPA per play gained +0.12 +0.12 better by 0.00
Cowboys defenseEPA per play allowed +0.22 +0.06 worse by 0.17
Cardinals offenseEPA per play gained +0.22 +0.03 better by 0.20
Cardinals defenseEPA per play allowed +0.12 +0.12 worse by 0.00

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 36% of them, Cardinals 64%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cardinals by 12.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+4.0%
Cowboys by 9–1611.1%
Cowboys by 1–820.4%
Level after regulation3.0%
Cardinals by 1–829.8%
Cardinals by 9–1617.7%
Cardinals by 17+13.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Cardinals by 12. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cardinals by 7.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Prater, 39 yds made · 88% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 49 yds made · 73% expected
  • M. Prater, 43 yds made · 82% expected
  • M. Prater, 62 yds made · 52% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 26 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 1:52 B. Aubrey made 49-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him, 1 of 1 from 45+ before +9% DAL DAL: Touchdown
2 Q2 2:00 Defensive Offside on the Cowboys, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +7% ARI ARI: Field goal
3 Q2 1:31 M. Prater made 43-yard field goalKicks · 82% expected for him +7% ARI ARI: Field goal
4 Q3 3:03 The Cowboys were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +8% ARI DAL: Field goal
5 Q3 0:17 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +6% DAL ARI: Punt
6 Q4 11:50 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +7% DAL DAL: Field goal
7 Q4 7:27 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +6% ARI ARI: Touchdown
8 Q4 3:05 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedThe Cowboys threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +6% ARI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kyler Murray (ARI QB), out (IR), replaced by j.dobbs · 3.6 pts
  • Budda Baker (ARI SS), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Trevon Diggs (DAL CB), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Tyron Smith (DAL T), out · 1.2 pts
  • Zack Martin (DAL G), out · 0.8 pts
  • Tyler Biadasz (DAL C), out · 0.7 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 16% · Cardinals 84%

Final margin
Cardinals by 12
Luck in points
4.1 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Cardinals by 7.9
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 36% · Cardinals 64% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2023 games · Cowboys · Cardinals

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