luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 3 2023 · September 24, 2023

Bills at Commanders, Week 3 2023: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Commanders 37–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bills were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 11:41 left): the Bills converted 3rd & 8, worth 8 points of win probability to the Bills.

Final

Buffalo Bills 37
Washington Commanders 3

September 24, 2023 · FedExField · Closing line: Bills −5.5

Luck index +6 Bills about even · −6 Commanders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 9, Commanders win 1.

  1. 1 BUF 45 WAS 10
  2. 2 BUF 33 WAS 6
  3. 3 BUF 45 WAS 23
  4. 4 BUF 28 WAS 10
  5. 5 BUF 38 WAS 24
  6. 6 BUF 22 WAS 10
  7. 7 BUF 21 WAS 13
  8. 8 BUF 27 WAS 23
  9. 9 BUF 26 WAS 24
  10. 10 BUF 13 WAS 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 94% of them, Commanders 6%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 34.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+59.7%
Bills by 9–1622.3%
Bills by 1–811.1%
Level after regulation0.7%
Commanders by 1–84.5%
Commanders by 9–161.4%
Commanders by 17+0.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.7 points to the Bills: the final margin was Bills by 34, without the luck Bills by 30.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Bass, 36 yds made · 93% expected
  • T. Bass, 54 yds made · 70% expected
  • T. Bass, 32 yds made · 96% expected
  • J. Slye, 51 yds made · 70% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bills 6 for 45 yards, Commanders 2 for 15 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 0:59 Offensive Holding on the Commanders (David Mayo), 10 yards +3% BUF +0.9 pts
Q2 15:00 Defensive Holding on the Bills (Jordan Phillips), 5 yards +2% WAS +0.1 pts
Q2 9:37 Illegal Shift on the Bills (Dalton Kincaid), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% WAS +1.1 pts
Q2 4:28 Tripping on the Bills (Dalton Kincaid), 15 yards +2% WAS +1.0 pts
Q2 3:17 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.5 pts
Q3 14:16 Illegal Contact on the Bills (Christian Benford), 5 yards +1% WAS +1.7 pts
Q3 7:07 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards +1% WAS +1.4 pts
Q3 3:42 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Commanders, 5 yards, wiping out the play +3% BUF +1.8 pts

Bills penalties, every game · Commanders penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Commanders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 63%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Commanders were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:41 The Bills converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +6% BUF BUF: Field goal
2 Q1 11:41 The Bills converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +8% BUF BUF: Field goal
3 Q1 9:38 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +5% WAS BUF: Field goal
4 Q1 4:45 The Commanders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 49% of interception-worthy throws +6% BUF WAS: Punt
5 Q2 7:04 The Bills got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 49% of interception-worthy throws +5% BUF BUF: Field goal
6 Q2 6:57 The Bills converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +4% BUF BUF: Field goal
7 Q2 2:00 T. Bass made a 54-yard field goalKicks · 70% expected for him, 25 of 33 from 45+ before +5% BUF BUF: Field goal
8 Q2 1:19 The Commanders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 50% of interception-worthy throws +4% BUF WAS: End of half

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Logan Thomas (WAS TE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Damar Hamlin (BUF SS), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 100% · Commanders 0%

Final margin
Bills by 34
Luck in points
3.7 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 30.3
Replay with same day's form
Bills 94% · Commanders 6% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2023 games · Bills · Commanders

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